The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies kick-off Monday night's slate at 6:40 PM ET / 5:40 PM CT / 3:40 PM PT from Citizen's Bank Park in Philly.
In the midst of a wild trade deadline that has already seen former-National Luis Garcia Jr. get moved to the New York Yankees and Luis Arraez get traded to the Phillies, we'll try to find some guys that are in good spots to potentially go deep in this evening game.
Philly is a -165 favorite with the total set at 9.0 (-120 on the over, +100 on the under) on bet365 with Andrew Alvarez on the bump for Washington and Aaron Nola taking the mound for the Phillies.
Who Could Hit a Home Run in the Nationals vs. Phillies Game? - 8/3
Nola is certainly the pitcher to target in this one. He's given up 26 home runs in 114 innings pitched this year - 16 to lefties and 10 to righties. He mainly uses a knuckle-curve, changeup, and a trio of fastballs (four-seam, sinker, and cutter), and outside of the changeup (which has only allowed one homer this year), hitters have teed off on the rest of his pitches.
Even though Washington traded away their slugging infielder Garcia Jr., they still have plenty of powerful bats in the lineup to take advantage of Nola's struggles.
1. CJ Abrams (+325)
Abrams has been one of the best hitters in baseball this year, mashing 28 homers including 23 against righties. While Nola's changeup has played well for him, that's a pitch that Abrams has crushed recently.
The last 15 right-handed changeups put in play by Abrams have resulted in four home runs a 73.3% hard-hit rate, 73.3% pull rate, and a 40% fly ball rate - all great numbers for a potential home run. It also helps that he hits all versions of Nola's fastball well.
The shortstop has one homer in 24 at-bats against Nola in his career, but he's been playing on a different level this season compared to years prior and is a good look for a home run tonight.
2. JT Realmuto (+600)
Looking at the Phillies' side, Realmuto has recently been hitting the ball as hard as he has all season - especially against lefties. Alvarez has done a tremendous job at limiting home runs, which explains Realmuto's steep price, but we'll take a chance here.
Alvarez has three main pitches: a slider, curveball, and four-seam fastball. JT has done well against all three pitches recently, putting together a 60% hard-hit rate against that mix in the last 15 balls he's put in play.
Hit bat speed has been good, he doesn't whiff much, and he's seeing the ball well - at +600, he's worthy of a stab.
Certainly James Wood and Kyle Schwarber are always worth taking a look at considering their light-tower power, but both guys haven't been up to their usual standard recently, and their short prices are unenticing.
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All odds written in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
These are not official picks, this article is simply an opinion piece.
