USC heads across the country to Happy Valley on Saturday night for a matchup between two programs badly in need of a stabilizing performance.
The Trojans are 5-1 and ranked No. 19, but they have looked vulnerable for three straight weeks, surviving Rutgers 42-35, losing 41-27 to Oregon and then rallying from an 11-point second-half deficit to beat Washington 25-21.
Penn State is in an even worse spot. The Nittany Lions have dropped consecutive Big Ten games, blowing a 17-0 lead against Wisconsin before getting routed 34-13 at Northwestern.
Now they return home for the Whiteout, and despite the ugly form, I think this is the spot where Penn State responds.
USC vs. Penn State betting picks and predictions
Penn State -1.5 (-108)
There may not be a more uncomfortable favorite on the Week 6 board.
Penn State’s offense has been brutal lately and the defense just got run over by Northwestern. Confidence around the program has cratered only five games into the Matt Campbell era.
Still, USC has struggled badly with cross-country travel under Lincoln Riley, and even this year’s better version of the Trojans nearly gave away a road game at Rutgers.
Penn State is only 11-7 all-time in Whiteout games, but that record reflects the quality of opponents the Nittany Lions usually schedule for the event. This is still one of the loudest settings in college football, and USC is entering it with a team that has not looked particularly composed away from Los Angeles.
The Nittany Lions have been vulnerable against the run, ranking near the bottom of the country in rushing efficiency allowed, but USC is not a team I trust to play four quarters of bruising, physical football.
The Trojans have the talent to run it well. The question is whether they will stay committed to doing it if the game gets uncomfortable.
Penn State’s defense remains far more trustworthy against the pass, and Jayden Maiava and this USC offense is built around explosive throws.
Offensively, Penn State has to be functional.
Rocco Becht has struggled without Koby Howard, but USC’s defense gives him a much easier matchup than Wisconsin or Northwestern did. The Trojans have had major issues in coverage and tackling, and those weaknesses can help Penn State manufacture offense without needing Becht to suddenly become a downfield assassin.
It is ugly, but I’ll buy the home team at its lowest point.
Under 54.5 total points (-109)
There is a clear argument for the Over because USC’s defense has been poor and its offense is the best unit on the field.
I still prefer the Under because neither offense plays especially fast. USC ranks 102nd nationally in snaps per minute, while Penn State sits 83rd.
The Nittany Lions are not built to win a shootout right now. Without Howard, they lack a true explosive threat on the perimeter, and their offensive line has not consistently created push in the running game.
That should lead to a conservative plan centered around staying on schedule, limiting possessions and avoiding the kind of mistakes that would allow USC to turn this into a track meet.
The Trojans fell behind Washington 21-10 in the third quarter last week before finally finding rhythm, and they have not consistently controlled games against weaker competition.
Penn State’s defense has disappointed relative to expectations, but its coverage remains arguably the best part of the team.
If the Nittany Lions can force USC to work through longer drives instead of generating quick scores, this total becomes difficult to reach.
I expect a tense, possession-by-possession game where both teams spend more time trying not to lose than aggressively chasing points.
Chase Sowell Anytime Touchdown (+145)
With Koby Howard still sidelined, Sowell has become Penn State’s clear top option outside.
He caught six passes for 70 yards against Wisconsin and followed that with five receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown against Northwestern.
That is 11 catches for 138 yards over the last two games, and his role should remain substantial against USC.
At 6-foot-3, Sowell gives Becht a legitimate red-zone target, and his 13.9 yards per reception show he is not limited to underneath work.
USC’s tackling problems create opportunities for receivers to turn routine completions into explosive plays, and Sowell is now the Penn State wideout most likely to get enough volume to capitalize.
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USC vs. Penn State odds
USC | +100 |
Penn State | -120 |
Spread | Penn State -1.5 |
Total | O/U 54.5 |
USC vs. Penn State player props
Anytime touchdown
King Miller (USC) | -135 |
James Peoples (Penn State) | -130 |
Carson Hansen (Penn State) | +100 |
Trent Mosley (USC) | +115 |
Waymond Jordan (USC) | +135 |
Chase Sowell (Penn State) | +145 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
