Defending US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz remains on track to win a third Flushing Meadows crown as he prepares to face home contender Tommy Paul in the last-16 on Sunday.
Alcaraz made his comeback in New York after more than four months on the sidelines and is growing in confidence and performance level game by game.
Paul has a chance to become the first active American player to reach the quarter-finals of every Grand Slam event but must break a glass ceiling in New York as he has never previously defeated a top-five ranked player at one of the sport's marquee events.
Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz betting picks and predictions
Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1 (+225)
Alcaraz leads the career head-to-head 6-2 and has won all three previous Grand Slam meetings. A win in New York will complete the set for the Spaniard, as he has already defeated Paul at Wimbledon, Paris and Melbourne.
Paul is 0-2 in US Open last-16 matches and yet to defeat a top-five ranked player in a Grand Slam. He avenged last year's US Open loss against Alexander Bublik in the previous round but had to come from behind in a five-set win. He has spent more than 90 minutes longer on court in New York compared to Alcaraz.
The defending champ defeated Wu Yibing 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 in round three but was given a solid workout owing to some strong returning from the Chinese.
Two of the three previous Grand Slam meetings have gone to Alcaraz in straight sets but their opening set in Melbourne in January required a first-set tie-breaker.
This looks like the toughest test Alcaraz will have faced so far in his New York comeback but he has won 17 straight matches at Grand Slams and can come through again, albeit Paul looks capable of putting a set on the board.
Carlos Alcaraz Under 4.5 Double Faults (-162)
Some rustiness from Alcaraz was anticipated on his return from a wrist injury. He coughed up five double faults in his round one win over Roman Safiullin and has dropped that number to four in the subsequent victories over Jaime Faria and Wu Yibing.
The reigning champ should keep his mistakes down again now. Alcaraz didn't serve a single double fault in the Australian Open meeting back in January and has offered only two in three previous Grand Slam meetings previously against Paul.
Two of his three sets in round three were free from double faults and Alcaraz can keep control of the error count now.
Tommy Paul Most Aces (-187)
Despite a straight sets loss in Melbourne in the Australian Open last 16 in January, it was Paul that won the ace-count 7-2.
The American, ranked 21st in the world, has served 28 aces in his opening three matches in New York. Alcaraz meanwhile has landed just 11 perfect serves across the first three rounds at this US Open.
Paul has lost the ace-count in only three of the previous eight meetings with Alcaraz and he will have to rely on his power in that department to try and trouble the two-time US Open winner.
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Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz head to head
Tommy Paul | 2 |
Carlos Alcaraz | 6 |
Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds
Tommy Paul | +400 |
Carlos Alcaraz | -600 |
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
