An all-American US Open semifinal sees Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton battle for a place in Sunday's final, with both players dreaming of ending USA's long wait for a men's Grand Slam champion.
Shelton comes into this semifinal with huge momentum after producing the biggest win of his career against defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a remarkable five-set quarterfinal that finished at 3:33 a.m.
The eighth seed survived a marathon encounter 6-7 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6, firing a 146 mph ace to close out the deciding-set tiebreak and end Alcaraz's 12-match winning streak in Grand Slam matches.
That victory earned Shelton his third Grand Slam semifinal and second at the US Open, with him having also reached the last four in New York in 2023.
Tiafoe has been just as impressive in New York and reached his third US Open semifinal after producing a remarkable comeback against Alex Michelsen.
The 11th seed recovered from two sets down and 3-0 in the deciding set before eventually winning 5-7 3-6 7-5 6-3 7-6. The victory means Tiafoe has reached the last four in New York for a third time, although he is still searching for his first Grand Slam final.
The winner will become the first American man to reach the US Open final since Taylor Fritz in 2024 and will have the chance to end the country's men's Grand Slam drought which dates all the way back to Andy Roddick's 2003 triumph in New York.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton betting picks and predictions
Ben Shelton to win 3-1 (+240)
Shelton's victory over Alcaraz showed just how well equipped he is to handle the biggest occasions and the American can continue his remarkable US Open run by beating Tiafoe in four sets.
The 23-year-old was forced to dig extremely deep against Alcaraz, playing for four hours and 28 minutes, but he has two full days to recover before Friday's semifinal.
Shelton's serve remains his biggest weapon and could prove decisive against Tiafoe. He can generate huge pace, regularly exceed 140 mph and use his left-handed delivery to earn free points when matches become tight.
Tiafoe has plenty of weapons of his own and his US Open record deserves huge respect. He has now reached three semifinals at this tournament and showed tremendous resilience to recover against Michelsen.
However, Shelton leads their head-to-head 3-1 and has won their most recent two meetings.
This should be another competitive contest, but Shelton's ability to win cheap points and maintain pressure on his opponent's service games can see him reach his first Grand Slam final with a four-set victory.
Frances Tiafoe over 2.5 breaks of serve (+120)
Tiafoe's route to the semifinals has demonstrated how dangerous he can be when he gets into an opponent's service games and backing him to break Shelton at least three times offers some appealing value.
Shelton's serve is the biggest weapon in this matchup, but even Alcaraz was able to create opportunities against him during their marathon quarterfinal. The American dropped serve twice in the fourth set before recovering in the deciding set.
Tiafoe is an excellent athlete who can extend rallies and turn defense into offense, which could force Shelton to play more points than he would like from his second serve.
The New York crowd should also give Tiafoe an enormous boost. He thrives in this environment and has already demonstrated his ability to raise his level when the pressure is at its highest.
Shelton remains the more likely winner, but Tiafoe should have enough opportunities to break serve three or more times in what is expected to be a long and competitive semifinal.
Total games over 39.5 (-120)
Everything points toward another lengthy contest between these two Americans, making over 39.5 games at -120 an appealing selection.
Both players needed five sets to reach the semifinals, with Shelton spending four hours and 28 minutes on court against Alcaraz and Tiafoe battling for four hours and 38 minutes against Michelsen.
Shelton's serve should produce plenty of holds, while Tiafoe has the returning ability and athleticism to make the American work hard for his service games.
Their previous meetings have also tended to be competitive, with Shelton holding a 3-1 advantage but Tiafoe winning their last US Open encounter in five sets in 2024.
A four-set match should be enough to push this total over the line if the sets are competitive, while a five-set battle would leave little doubt.
If you want to combine the Shelton pick with the expectation of a high-scoring match, Shelton to win and over 38.5 games is also available at +150.
That offers an attractive alternative for players who want to back the 23-year-old to reach the final while taking a lower number of total games.
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Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton head to head
Frances Tiafoe wins | 1 |
Ben Shelton wins | 3 |
Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton odds
Frances Tiafoe | +250 |
Ben Shelton | -334 |
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
