There have been plenty of thrills and spills at the Mubadala DC Open which have thrown up a very intriguing final between experienced home hope Taylor Fritz and rapidly rising Spanish star Rafael Jodar.
Fritz has been there and done that in many ways, having been ranked as high as fourth in the world with 10 ATP titles to his name while this is his fourth final of the year.
However, the American is under a fair degree of pressure as this will be his first Championship match in Washington and he goes into it having lost all three previous finals in 2026.
On the flip side, Jodar's stock could not be rising any faster as he started the year ranked 168th but regardless of Sunday's result, he will finish the tournament in the top 15.
While this will be his first ATP 500 final, the 19-year-old has a title to his name this year, winning an ATP 250 event, the Grand Prix Hassan II, in Marrakech in April, and he is a player enjoying a meteoric rise in 2026.
These two players have met once before with the American edging a tight encounter at Delray Beach in February, winning 7-6 (4) 6-4, and is the -150 favorite to lift the title on Sunday.
Taylor Fritz vs. Rafael Jodar betting picks and predictions
Total Sets - 3 (+100)
Taylor Fritz is an understandable favorite as both the third seed and having won the one previous meeting between the two, but there is no doubt that he will be feeling plenty of pressure having lost all three finals he has played so far this year.
The American might not be truly at the top of his game, having been pushed to a third set in his last two matches against compatriots Alex Michelsen and Brandon Nakashima - indeed saving a match point against the former, but he has found that little bit of quality when needed to come through those tough moments.
Jodar doesn't necessarily have the big serve of his opponent to end games quickly but his aggression in the baseline rallies will likely ask serious questions of Fritz, who also looked like he sustained a problem with his knee in his quarter-final, and this clash could very easily go to a third set.
The Spanish starlet's confidence seems to be growing by the week and he has been able to keep his composure when tested throughout the tournament which will stand him in good stead against Fritz.
Jodar was blitzed 6-1 in the opening set against fourth seed Lorenzo Musetti but responded in kind before winning in three sets. Meanwhile he put the disappointment of losing the first set on a tiebreak in his semifinal behind him to win the next two, facing only one break point in the entire three sets against Alejandro Tabilo.
Fritz has been pegged back in each of his last two matches after taking the first set against both Michelsen and Nakashima, so backing three sets regardless of the outcome appeals at odds of +100.
Rafael Jodar - Over 2.5 Double Faults (+100)
Jodar's serve is not as potent a weapon as his opponent's in terms of aces but the stats for double faults are pretty similar so odds of +100 that the Spaniard makes at least three double faults look well worth considering.
In his four matches in Washington, Jodar has already served a total of 15 double faults, with at least three in three of those matches - two against Kei Nishikori being the exception. The total is skewed by a whopping seven in his semi-final win over Tabilo.
Admittedly those doubles didn't necessarily add undue pressure as he faced only one break point, but the stakes are ramped up in a first final at this level, especially against a player of Fritz's quality, and another three seem eminently possible.
Rafael Jodar to win from behind (+700)
Given the way the tournament has panned out, it may be worth taking a chance on Jodar replicating his last two performances and recovering from a first-set loss - 6-1 to Musetti and 7-6 to Tabilo - to come through in a decider.
As mentioned, Fritz has been taken to a third set in each of his last two matches after winning the opener, while their previous meeting earlier this year finished 7-6 6-4 in the American's favor in a tightly contested clash.
Given Jodar has enjoyed a massive trajectory upwards since then, he is certainly capable of turning the tables and it may be worth chancing at big odds.
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
