Jannik Sinner's unwonted second-round exit from the French Open, coupled with Carlos Alcaraz's injury absence and Novak Djokovic's advancing age, has presented Alexander Zverev with what might be the greatest Grand Slam opportunity of his career.
The men's draw at the French Open has been completely upended. Sinner, the World No. 1 and clear title favorite, was stunningly knocked out by Juan Manuel Cerúndolo on Thursday.
Initially, everything pointed to a routine victory for the Italian. Sinner comfortably took the first two sets 6-3, 6-2 and was leading 5-1 in the third. However, he began to struggle physically in the Parisian heat, taking a medical timeout that completely disrupted his rhythm. This allowed Cerúndolo to fight his way back into the match. The Argentine mounted an incredible comeback, winning the final three sets 7-5, 6-1, 6-1 to produce the biggest shock of the tournament so far.
This result has radically altered the landscape of the men's competition. With Carlos Alcaraz already sidelined with a wrist injury and Sinner now out of the picture, the two players who have dominated the tour in recent months are gone. Consequently, all eyes are now on World No. 3, Alexander Zverev. For him, this is not just a good opportunity—it could be the best remaining chance he'll ever have to win a Grand Slam.
Zverev's History of Missed Grand Slam Opportunities
For years, Zverev has been on the cusp of Grand Slam glory but has never managed to cross the finish line. He has won major titles, including Olympic gold and the ATP Finals, establishing himself as a top-tier player on the tour. Yet, in the moments that matter most at the majors, he has consistently fallen short.
This makes the current situation at Roland-Garros particularly significant. Clay is traditionally Zverev's strongest surface, and he reached the final in Paris in 2024. This year, the field is far more open than it appeared just a few weeks ago. If an opportunity like this isn't enough, one has to wonder when, if ever, his time will come.
Zverev's Biggest Obstacle Is Gone
A major reason Zverev has often seemed like the "eternal third" in recent months is his head-to-head record against Sinner. The Italian had won their last eight consecutive meetings. The most painful of these was the Madrid final just a few weeks ago, where Sinner dismantled Zverev 6-1, 6-2.
Sinner's departure fundamentally changes the tournament for the German. Zverev no longer has to face the player who has repeatedly been his undoing. His biggest mental and tactical hurdle has suddenly been removed. With that, however, the pressure automatically increases. When the season's most dominant player is no longer in the draw, a favorable path quickly becomes a must-win opportunity.
Djokovic Also Senses His Chance
Of course, Zverev isn't the only one reassessing his chances. At 39, Novak Djokovic may no longer be the physically dominant force of his prime, but he remains in the tournament, still chasing his 25th Grand Slam title. In an open field, Djokovic is always a threat, thanks to his immense experience and his ability to elevate his game round by round at the majors.
Beyond Zverev and Djokovic, other players will now view their prospects in Paris differently. Casper Ruud, with his clay-court prowess and two previous finals appearances in Paris, is once again a serious contender. The young Spaniard Rafael Jodar is also drawing more attention. He impressed with his first-ever main draw victory in Paris and is considered one of the most exciting young talents on clay.
Updated Outright French Open Odds After Sinner's Exit
Alexander Zverev | +187 |
Novak Djokovic | +350 |
Casper Ruud | +750 |
Francisco Cerundolo | +1000 |
Rafael Jodar | +1100 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime | +1600 |
Flavio Cobolli | +1800 |
Alex de Minaur | +2000 |
Luciano Darderi | +2000 |
Andrey Rublev | +2500 |
All odds in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
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