Week 10 of the college football season features a top-20 SEC clash under the lights in Knoxville, as the No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats visit the No. 16 Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday night.
Kentucky has been one of the sport's best stories under first-year head coach Will Stein, winning six straight games since a September loss to Alabama and climbing into a tie for first place in the SEC.
Tennessee lost a 27-24 heartbreaker at South Carolina in its last outing and needs a home win to stay in the conference race.
With Saturday's showdown set for 6:15 pm ET on ESPN, it's time to break down the odds and discuss the best bets.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee betting picks and predictions
Tennessee -6.5 (-119)
Kentucky's 7-1 record is impressive, but a closer look reveals a team that has lived on the edge.
The Wildcats won back-to-back 35-34 overtime games against South Carolina and LSU, and Josh Heupel noted this week that two of their close wins were decided by two-point conversions.
Kentucky has also been propped up by turnovers. Its +1.62 turnover margin per game ranks fourth in the nation, and that kind of number is hard to sustain against a quality opponent on the road.
The defense is the bigger concern. Kentucky ranks tied for No. 89 nationally in scoring defense (24.8 points per game), No. 72 in total defense and No. 116 against the pass, while opponents are converting 48.3% of their third downs (132nd in the country). The offense has its own third-down issues, ranking No. 117 at 33.7%.
Tennessee's profile is far sturdier. The Vols outscore opponents by 16.0 points per game, compared with 6.8 for Kentucky, and their defense allows just 16.3 points per game while leading the SEC in pass defense. Tyree Weathersby (7 sacks) and Xavier Gilliam (6 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss) headline a front that should make life difficult for Kenny Minchey.
Tennessee's two losses came by a combined six points, and its last home game was a 26-10 rout of No. 6 Alabama.
Both teams are coming off a bye, but the Vols get a homecoming night crowd at Neyland Stadium. Even with its quarterback situation unsettled, Tennessee has the better roster and should win by more than a touchdown.
Under 49.5 (-116)
Tennessee's games have been a gold mine for Under bettors. The Under has cashed in six of the Vols' eight games, including all five at home, and four of their last five games have finished with 41 points or fewer.
The quarterback uncertainty only adds to that case. Heupel hasn't said whether George MacIntyre or Faizon Brandon will start, and Tennessee averages 167.2 passing yards per game. Expect the Vols to lean on a ground game that averages 213.0 yards per game and keeps the clock moving.
Kentucky's offense isn't built for a shootout either. The Wildcats average 209.9 passing yards per game and now face a defense allowing just 142.8 through the air. They are also thin in the backfield, with CJ Baxter (487 yards, 8 TDs) getting only one carry over the past two games because of injuries.
DeSean Bishop Over 129.5 rushing yards (-120)
With Tennessee's passing game sputtering and its starting quarterback still unnamed, Bishop should be the focal point of the offense on Saturday.
The running back has been one of the most productive in the SEC, piling up 957 yards and 11 touchdowns on 5.7 yards per carry. He has topped 120 rushing yards in each of his last four games, including a 220-yard performance against Auburn, and he handled 32 carries at South Carolina.
Kentucky has held three straight SEC opponents under 100 rushing yards, but it is still allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game on the season. Bishop's recent workload makes this number look too low.
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Kentucky vs. Tennessee odds
Kentucky | +190 |
Tennessee | -256 |
Spread | Tennessee -6.5 |
Total | O/U 49.5 |
Kentucky vs. Tennessee player props
Anytime touchdown
DeSean Bishop (Tennessee) | -425 |
CJ Baxter (Kentucky) | +105 |
Mike Matthews (Tennessee) | +125 |
Braylon Staley (Tennessee) | +185 |
Jason Patterson (Kentucky) | +200 |
Kenny Darby (Kentucky) | +230 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
