Milwaukee Brewers may be 13 games ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB's National League Central standings, but don't get it twisted, the Pirates have owned the Brewers all year.
And it was more of the same last night.
Milwaukee, still searching for its 70th win of the season, was thwarted on Monday at home in the series opener. The Pirates scored four runs between the third and fourth inning, on the back of a bases-clearing double by Spencer Horwitz, and the Brewers could never recover.
The Pirates now lead the season series 6-1 while having outscored the Brewers 40-24.
Tonight's pitching matchup features two excellent 24-year-old right-handed arms. Jared Jones, for the Pirates, is a flamethrower who dominates with his fastball, while Logan Henderson, for the Brewers, dominates with his changeup.
Neither lineup has much experience against the opposing pitcher, creating an interesting matchup tonight. Without further ado, let's break down tonight's contest with three best bets.
Pirates vs. Brewers betting picks and predictions
Brewers -1.5 (+140)
Jared Jones faced the Brewers one time during his 2024 rookie campaign, and in that game he went six innings while allowing one run. That one run came on a Rhys Hoskins homer, and he is no longer a Brewer. The rest of the lineup was still active with the Brewers, going 3-for-12 against him.
On the other side, Logan Henderson faced the Pirates once last year, going five innings while allowing one run. That one run came on an Oneil Cruz homer.
The Pirates are without the services of Cruz, rookie stud Konnor Griffin and Ryan O'Hearn, which continually limits the ceiling of this offense. Henderson's 2.66 ERA has been bolstered by the fact that he carries a 2.25 ERA at home and a 2.25 ERA at night. He has also owned left-handed hitters, keeping them to a measly .176 AVG and .557 OPS.
Through 44 innings pitched this year, Henderson ranks in the 96th percentile in strikeouts, the 94th percentile in walks and the 84th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He draws a lot of soft contact in the air and generates swing-and-miss with pinpoint command and a putaway changeup.
The Pirates whiff more than any other team in baseball and chase at a top 10 clip. Pittsburgh may be second in baseball in OPS vs. RHP, but they are without three key hitters, and more importantly, they go from best in baseball in OPS at home to 17th in OPS on the road.
Jared Jones excels at blowing pitches past you and punishing with his big fastball, but the Brewers are excellent at home, great against RHP, and chase at the lowest rate and whiff at the sixth-lowest rate.
The Brewers should pick up their second win of the season against the Pirates tonight, and do so comfortably.
Over 7.5 Total Runs (-105)
The total looks a touch too low for two inexperienced young right-handed arms going up against lineups that have thrived against RHP. Plus, the Pirates used three of their top bullpen arms to finish off the win last night.
The Brewers also needed 38 pitches from their hardest-working bullpen arm in Aaron Ashby, plus they had to use the reliable services of Chad Patrick.
The Brewers still have their highest leverage arms fresh for tonight, but they will have to bridge that gap successfully.
The number one reason to back the Over tonight, though, is because both starting pitchers rank in the 32nd percentile or worse in groundball rate. Their flyball-to-home-run-rate allowed has been better than the numbers would suggest, and both are due for negative regression giving up the long ball.
We just need one more run scored than last night for this to clear!
Jake Bauers to Hit a Home Run (+550)
Speaking of home runs, Jake Bauers leads the Brewers with 20 of them. Ten of those have come at home and 15 of those have come at night.
More importantly, Bauers crushes right-handed pitching, and he crushes four-seam fastballs (.352 AVG, .562 SLG). With a Baseball Savant page coated in dark red, Bauers has the underlying data everywhere to indicate this is a great spot for him to go deep tonight.
With 95th percentile bat speed, 95th percentile hard-hit rate and 96th percentile chase rate, he just needs to time up a 100 MPH Jones fastball in the zone, connect, and it will go a long way.
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Pirates vs. Brewers Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates | +140 ML |
Milwaukee Brewers | -165 ML |
Run Line | MIL Brewers -1.5 |
Total | O/U 7.5 |
Pirates vs. Brewers player props
Player home run odds
Brandon Lowe (PIT Pirates) | +310 |
Esmerlyn Valdez (LA Dodgers) | +390 |
Jackson Chourio (LA Dodgers) | +425 |
Bryan Reynolds (LA Dodgers) | +450 |
Jake Bauers (CHI Cubs) | +500 |
William Contreras (LA Dodgers) | +525 |
Spencer Horwitz (CHI Cubs) | +525 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
