Penn State heads to Evanston on Friday night for a pivotal Big Ten matchup against Northwestern in the grand opening of the $875 million rebuilt Ryan Field.
Both teams are coming off conference-opening losses, but the performances felt very different. Penn State blew a 17-point lead in a 24-20 home loss to Wisconsin, while Northwestern pushed defending national champion Indiana to the brink in a 29-23 road defeat.
Now Penn State has to prove last week was an aberration, while Northwestern returns home with confidence, a new stadium and another opportunity to show it belongs in the Big Ten race.
Penn State vs. Northwestern betting picks and predictions
Northwestern +2.5 (+100)
I still believe Penn State has the higher floor, especially because of its defense, but Northwestern is the side I want in this spot.
The biggest concern with Penn State is what its passing game looks like without Koby Howard.
Howard had 12 catches for 344 yards and two touchdowns through three games before getting hurt, and the Nittany Lions clearly missed that explosiveness against Wisconsin. Rocco Becht completed only 12 of 29 passes for 129 yards with an interception, and Penn State finished with just 248 total yards.
Chase Sowell needs to become the reliable outside option now. He caught six passes for 70 yards last week and has 14 receptions for 196 yards this season.
Northwestern's defense is built to make an offense earn everything.
The Wildcats have allowed only five touchdowns through three games, with four coming from eight yards or closer. They generally eliminate explosive passes and force teams to work underneath, although the trade-off is vulnerability against the run.
That should put even more pressure on Penn State's backfield.
James Peoples and Carson Hansen need to control this matchup, but the Nittany Lions have not consistently imposed themselves on the ground. Peoples did lead the way against Wisconsin with 67 yards on 14 carries.
Northwestern, meanwhile, should believe it can win outright.
Aidan Chiles went 22-for-29 for 293 yards with two passing touchdowns and another score on the ground against Indiana, helping the Wildcats fight back after being held to just 51 first-half yards.
Penn State's defense remains excellent, ranking eighth nationally in yards per play allowed, and particularly on third down, where the defense leads the country by allowing conversions on just 19.2% of attempts.
That keeps me from getting overly aggressive on Northwestern, but the Wildcats have covered all three games and now get one of the biggest home environments in program history. I'll take the points.
Under 45.5 total points (-110)
This has the ingredients of a classic Big Ten grinder. Penn State's defense is good enough to keep Northwestern from consistently sustaining drives, while Northwestern's defensive philosophy should make Becht and the Nittany Lions work patiently down the field.
The Wildcats are not an aggressive takeaway-hunting defense. They would rather prevent explosives and force opponents to string together efficient plays.
That is important against a Penn State offense currently missing its best big-play receiver.
The Nittany Lions also have not generated much pass rush, recording only six sacks so far, which could give Chiles enough time to create some offense.
Still, Northwestern may struggle against the run. Indiana gashed the Wildcats for 271 rushing yards, including 203 from Lee Beebe Jr., and Penn State should use that as the blueprint.
That means long drives, plenty of rushing attempts and a running clock.
Penn State's offense also showed just how stagnant it can become when Becht loses rhythm. The Nittany Lions failed to record a first down on four of their final five possessions against Wisconsin.
I expect both defenses to win enough snaps to keep this in the low 40s.
James Peoples Anytime Touchdown (+105)
If Penn State is going to rebound offensively, Peoples should be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Northwestern's defensive profile practically invites teams to run.
The Wildcats allowed 147 rushing yards to South Dakota State, 180 to Colorado and 271 to Indiana.
Penn State has been searching for a back to establish himself as the lead option, and Peoples gave the clearest argument last week.
He carried 14 times for 67 yards against Wisconsin and looked like Penn State's most trustworthy runner. One published projection for this matchup also identified Peoples as the back most likely to take control of the workload after that performance.
Northwestern has been excellent at preventing long passing touchdowns, but four of the five touchdowns it has surrendered came from inside the eight-yard line.
That creates the type of scoring environment where Peoples can cash this prop.
Penn State should be able to create rushing opportunities even if Becht struggles again, and I expect offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser to take pressure off his quarterback by leaning more heavily on the ground game.
At better than even money, Peoples to score is my favorite player angle.
Read more college football picks and predictions on site.
Penn State vs. Northwestern odds
Penn State | -140 |
Northwestern | +120 |
Spread | Penn State -2.5 |
Total | O/U 45.5 |
Penn State vs. Northwestern player props
Anytime Touchdown
James Peoples (Penn State) | +105 |
Aiden Chiles (Northwestern) | +120 |
Griffin Wilde (Northwestern) | +135 |
Carson Hansen (Penn State) | +140 |
Caleb Komolafe (Northwestern) | +145 |
Cam Wallace (Penn State) | +170 |
Read the latest college football news on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
