Ohio State and Texas meet Saturday night in Austin in one of the biggest games of the early college football season.
The Buckeyes won last year's meeting 14-7 in Columbus, but both offenses should be more mature this time around, with Julian Sayin and Arch Manning now owning a full season of starting experience.
Texas gets the rematch at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on ABC. The Longhorns are slight home favorites, and another physical game decided by protection, defensive pressure, and which offense can avoid the costly mistake is expected.
Ohio State vs. Texas betting picks and predictions
Texas -1.5 (-110)
Ohio State has beaten Texas in consecutive seasons, but the Longhorns can stop that run at home.
Last year's opener was largely dictated by the line of scrimmage. Neither offensive line consistently controlled the game, and both quarterbacks were forced to operate under uncomfortable conditions.
Sayin eventually developed into one of the nation's top quarterbacks last season, but his tougher matchups exposed some vulnerabilities. Across starts against three Top-10 opponents, Texas, Indiana, and Miami, he threw three interceptions and was sacked 10 times.
Texas has exactly the type of defender capable of creating those problems again in Collin Simmons, who can take over a series coming off the edge.
Ohio State's offensive line is one of the biggest questions about the Buckeyes this season. Their skill and talent are obvious, beginning with Jeremiah Smith, but those weapons matter less if Sayin does not have time to work through the downfield passing game.
The Longhorns leaned heavily on explosive plays in Week 1, while their efficiency on ordinary, non-explosive snaps was poor. Ohio State will almost certainly make that the focus: keep everything in front, tackle well, and force Manning to prove Texas can consistently string together first downs.
Manning finished last season playing his best football, posting an 87.9 QBR from November onward, and Steve Sarkisian added even more playmaking ability around him. Cam Coleman already looks like a receiver Manning trusts in contested situations, while Hollywood Smothers gives Texas another player who can turn a simple touch into a touchdown.
Ohio State also has to replace seven defensive starters who were drafted, including five selected within the first 62 picks.
The Buckeyes remain loaded, but that's substantial turnover before a night game in Austin.
Texas doesn't need to dominate. It just needs to make a couple more plays in a matchup where home field and quarterback experience can finally swing the series back toward the Longhorns.
Under 49.5 Total Points (-110)
Both offenses have more potential than they showed in last year's 14-7 meeting, but the defenses could still dictate long stretches of this game.
Ohio State's ideal defensive script is pretty straightforward: take away the immediate explosive play, make Texas drive the length of the field, and force Manning to repeatedly execute on third down and in the red zone.
That is especially important after the Longhorns struggled to generate consistent efficiency outside their big plays in Week 1.
Simmons and the Longhorns' front need to test an offensive line that could determine Ohio State's championship ceiling. If Texas can pressure Sayin without constantly bringing extra rushers, it can devote more defenders to Smith and Ohio State's other weapons.
Sayin has enough talent to punish blitzes and aggressive coverage, so creating disruption with the front four is critical.
The Buckeyes should also be willing to run the ball and make this a possession game. Their best formula on the road is keeping Manning off the field, avoiding giveaways, and forcing Texas to patiently defend the run.
Texas may also lean into heavier personnel and its own rushing game rather than asking Manning to win a shootout against an elite defense.
Both teams possess individual players capable of changing the game in one snap, but each defensive staff could build its entire plan around preventing exactly that.
A 24-21 or 27-20 Texas victory gets us there.
Hollywood Smothers 40+ Rushing Yards (+110)
Smothers may be the most interesting piece in the Texas offense because he offers a different kind of stress than Ohio State saw from the Longhorns last season.
He produced 70 rushing yards in Week 1, with 50 coming after contact, and his explosiveness gives Sarkisian plenty of reasons to expand his role against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State showed vulnerability against the run in its opener and did not tackle particularly well. The Buckeyes have plenty of defensive talent, but replacing seven NFL draftees naturally creates some new combinations and responsibilities.
Smothers is exactly the type of player who can punish one missed fit.
Texas also needs a rushing threat beyond Manning if it wants to avoid obvious passing situations. Asking Arch to repeatedly drop back against Ohio State's pass rush is not the preferred path.
Instead, expect Sarkisian to manufacture touches for Smothers, use motion and formation changes to get him into space, and give the Buckeyes something else to account for before the snap.
Forty yards is a modest threshold for a player with his big-play ability.
One explosive run could do most of the work, and his Week 1 performance should have earned him additional opportunities in a much bigger game.
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Ohio State vs. Texas Odds
Ohio State | +100 |
Texas | -120 |
Spread | Texas -1.5 |
Total Points | O/U 49.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
