Week 7 of the college football season is headlined in part by a showdown in the SEC between the Florida Gators and Texas Longhorns on Saturday afternoon.
Florida is hoping to avoid what would be a third consecutive loss, while Texas is coming off its first blemish of 2026 against Oklahoma.
This marks the Longhorns' first home game since September 19, as they faced Tennessee on the road, had a bye and tussled with Oklahoma at a neutral site (the Cotton Bowl in Dallas).
Head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team is 3-0 on its own field. Florida is 1-1 on the road, with a win at Auburn and a setback against Missouri.
With Saturday’s showdown set for 12:00 pm ET on ABC, it’s time to break down the odds and discuss the best bets to make.
Florida vs. Texas betting picks and predictions
Florida +11.5 (-115)
Admittedly, Florida does have some issues heading into this weekend. Head coach Jon Sumrall’s squad fell at Missouri 45-17 and then got humiliated at home by South Carolina 38-19 last week.
Adding insult to injury, or vice versa, quarterback Aaron Philo is questionable with a shoulder injury that he sustained late against South Carolina.
If Philo can’t go, sophomore Tramell Jones Jr. will get the start. In six appearances over the past two seasons, Jones has completed 68.8 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions.
Elsewhere on the injury front, wide receiver Vernell Brown III has a good chance to return after missing the last two games because of a knee issue.
Regardless of what the visitors bring to the table, Texas is not a team that inspires confidence in covering a double-digit spread. The Longhorns have played five games this season; they have won by more than three points only twice – and those victories were at the expense of Texas State and UTSA.
In their two most recent outings, the ‘Horns picked up an unspectacular 20-17 win at Tennessee followed by a 27-24 loss to Oklahoma.
The Longhorns had numerous chances to win the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma this past Saturday, but they surrendered 17 fourth-quarter points and blew a seven-point lead that they had going into the fourth quarter. Losing a rivalry game in that fashion is not the simplest thing to get over in the span of a week.
That’s not to say that Texas won’t win this game; it likely will as a big favorite. However, covering a spread of -11.5 with an offense that is inconsistent and usually does not generate a ton of offense seems like too tall of a task.
Under 51.5 (-112)
The Gators' offense had been red hot through four games, but the only particularly good opponent that they faced during that stretch was Ole Miss. They have since sputtered on that side of the ball.
Jaden Baugh rushed for a total of 72 yards in the last two games after gaining at least 136 yards on the ground in each of the previous four contests.
Texas is by far the best defense that Florida has faced all season, up front in particular. It’s hard to see Baugh getting back on track in this particular matchup – and if he does not, that will put pressure on a passing game that will be led by either a less than 100 percent Philo or a backup in Jones.
Meanwhile, UT quarterback Arch Manning threw two costly interceptions against OU and has been picked off at least once in four of five games this season. He is averaging a modest 222.4 yards per game through the air.
All things considered, the under looks like the way to go.
Hollywood Smothers Over 69.5 rushing yards (-120)
With Manning not playing well and facing a Florida defense that is only mediocre against the run (124.3 yards per game allowed on 3.9 yards per carry), Smothers should get plenty of carries on Saturday.
He will get even more if Texas is playing with a lead most of the way, which can be expected since it is favored by 11.5 points.
Smothers has rushed for at least 70 yards twice already this year, including against Ohio State.
Read more college football picks and predictions on site.
Florida vs. Texas odds
Florida | +340 |
Texas | -440 |
Spread | TEX -11.5 |
Total Points | O/U 51.5 |
Florida vs. Texas player props
Anytime touchdown
Jadan Baugh (Florida) | -200 |
Hollywood Smothers (Texas) | -190 |
Arch Manning (Texas) | -105 |
Cam Coleman (Texas) | -105 |
Raleek Brown (Texas) | +100 |
Ryan Wingo (Texas) | +120 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
