Washington Nationals open a four-game series against Atlanta on Thursday night, with the Braves looking to continue their recent success against their NL East rivals.
First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET, with coverage available on ESPN.
Atlanta holds a narrow 4-3 edge in the season series, but Washington enters this matchup having won the last two meetings, taking 2-0 and 2-1 victories in late May behind dominant pitching performances.
Thursday's opener looked like a favorable matchup for the Nationals before a pitching change, with Jake Irvin now scheduled after being activated from the 60-day injured list.
Irvin hasn't pitched since May, creating plenty of uncertainty around how deep he'll work into his first start back. That, combined with Washington's bullpen struggles, shifts the outlook for the series opener despite the Nationals continuing to profile as one of baseball's best road offenses.
With that in mind, here are our three favorite bets for Thursday night's matchup.
Nationals vs. Braves betting picks and predictions
Braves ML (-150)
Jake Irvin has flashed plenty of upside during his career and actually threw five no-hit shutout innings against Atlanta in his last outing at Truist Park back on May 23.
Braves hitters have managed just a .625 OPS against him over 114 career at-bats, with Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Michael Harris II accounting for most of the success. Outside of those three, Atlanta's lineup has struggled to square him up.
The concern is workload.
Irvin is making his first appearance since coming off the 60-day injured list, making it difficult to expect him to pitch deep into the game. Even if he looks sharp early, Washington will likely turn things over to a bullpen that has been one of the league's weakest all season.
That's where Atlanta gains a significant edge.
The Braves own the third-best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.46, while the Nationals rank 26th at 4.99. If this game is close entering the middle innings, Atlanta has a clear advantage the rest of the way.
The Braves are also a much better offensive team against right-handed pitching than lefties, posting a .746 OPS against right-handers compared to just a .701 mark versus southpaws.
The original matchup against Foster Griffin was problematic because of his dominance against left-handed hitters and Atlanta's struggles in those situations. With Irvin now on the mound, that advantage disappears.
Washington should still have opportunities against Grant Holmes, whose underlying metrics remain concerning. His expected ERA sits well above his actual ERA, while his hard-hit rate, average exit velocity allowed and walk rate all rank in the bottom third of the league.
Nationals hitters have also enjoyed success against him historically, collecting three home runs and an .817 OPS in 43 career at-bats.
Still, over nine innings, Atlanta's bullpen depth and more favorable offensive matchup make the Braves the better play.
Over 9.5 total runs (-105)
The pitching change also makes the Over even more attractive.
Washington has been one of baseball's best Over teams this season, with 59 games clearing the total, and the Nationals should continue to generate quality scoring chances against Holmes.
Their lineup ranks second in MLB with a .774 road OPS and third with a .764 OPS against right-handed pitching, making this an excellent matchup despite the Braves being at home.
Atlanta should contribute plenty offensively as well.
While Irvin has pitched well against the Braves historically, expecting him to work six or seven innings in his first game back from a lengthy absence is unrealistic.
Once Washington turns to its bullpen, Atlanta should find opportunities to add runs against one of baseball's least effective relief units.
With both offenses matching up well against the opposing pitching staffs, this game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring opener.
Luis Garcia Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+425)
Luis Garcia Jr. has enjoyed a breakout campaign, launching 22 home runs while posting an impressive .860 OPS. He's been especially dangerous against right-handed pitching, hitting .290 with an .895 OPS, and his production has actually improved away from Nationals Park, where he's batting .304 with a .926 OPS.
He's also swinging the bat well entering this series, hitting .304 with an .855 OPS over the past seven days.
The matchup works in his favor, too. Garcia is 2-for-7 with a double against Holmes, and Holmes has consistently allowed hard contact throughout the season.
Given Garcia's combination of recent form, road production and success against right-handed pitching, he offers excellent value to leave the yard on Thursday.
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Nationals vs. Braves odds
Washington Nationals | +125 ML |
Atlanta Braves | -150 ML |
Run Line | ATL Braves -1.5 |
Total | O/U 9.5 |
Nationals vs. Braves player props
Player home run odds
Matt Olsen (ATL Braves) | +240 |
James Wood (WAS Nationals) | +275 |
Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL Braves) | +310 |
Drake Baldwin (ATL Braves) | +325 |
Michael Harris II (ATL Braves) | +325 |
CJ Abrams (WAS Nationals) | +390 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
