MVP MMA: Rousey vs. Carano: Prediction & Best Bets

Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano headline what could be one of the most watched MMA events ever as MVP 1 lands on Netflix.

The card also features former UFC champion Francis Ngannou, as well as a throwback match-up between veterans Nate Diaz and Mike Perry. 

The event will take place on Saturday May 16 at the Intuit Dome, Inglewood, California.

The fights will begin with the Preliminary Card at 6 PM ET, followed by the Main Card at 9 PM ET.

Our article will give you our two best bets for the main event, as well as the current moneyline odds for MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs. Carano.

MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs. Carano betting picks and predictions

Under 1.5 rounds (-235)

By the time both step into the cage this weekend Ronda Rousey (12-2-0) and Gina Carano (7-1-0) will have clocked up a combined 26 years away from competitive fighting.

Rousey retired from the UFC in 2016 following back-to-back TKO defeats to Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm, while Carano hasn’t competed in MMA since a first-round stoppage loss to Cris Cyborg in Strikeforce in 2009.

Both were trailblazers in the sport, with Rousey reaching global crossover superstardom following her violent 12-win run, six of which came as UFC champion.

Carano showcased an attractive striking style with her Muay Thai background, and although she retired early with a 7-1 record, her name was always linked to Rousey during the former Olympian’s rise.

With no recent data to back-up where either fighter is at, Rousey’s two spells in the WWE have to be taken into account, with her final run ending in 2023, while she also appeared in AEW in early 2026.

Rousey also brings an Olympic pedigree, a 2008 Judo bronze medalist at the Beijing games. 

Carano is no doubt a talented striker, but that was sixteen years ago with her film and television career long surpassing her days as an MMA fighter. 

In truth, there isn’t much chance of this being a long, drawn out war and should end comfortably within the first half of the fight. 

Ronda Rousey To Win By Submission (-210)

All but one of Rousey’s MMA wins came outside of the first round; a 2013 third-round armbar win over Miesha Tate, who she also defeated by the same method to claim the Strikeforce title in the first round of their initial 2012 contest. 

In fact, nine of Rousey’s 12 career wins came via her trademark armbar, with the rest via KO/TKO.

It is also worth noting that Carano only ever fought three times in bouts with five-minute rounds, with her career also spanning a time when three, three-minute rounds were a standard contest. 

Although an interesting match-up once upon a time, Carano is likely providing name value for Rousey to get a win and the former UFC champion looks good value to secure victory by submission. 

MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs. Carano odds

	Ronda Rousey	Gina Carano
Moneyline	-650	+400
By Decision or Technical Decision	+1000	+1650
By KO, TKO or DQ	+375	+700
By Submission	-200	+2000

Total Rounds	Over	Under
1.5	+175	-220
2.5	+350	-500
3.5	+500	-800
4.5	+625	-1100

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.