The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs meet again in the NL Wild Card Round after the Cubs edged the Padres at this stage in last year's postseason.
However, San Diego has home-field advantage this time around, and they send Michael King to the hill, while Chicago will hand the ball to lefty Matthew Boyd in Game 1.
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs betting picks and predictions
San Diego Padres moneyline (-138)
The Padres (91-71) and the Cubs (89-73) may have finished the MLB regular season with similar records, but the two teams enter this postseason matchup on contrasting runs.
San Diego finished the season like no one else in baseball with a 17-3 run. At 41-18 since July 24, they have the best record in the majors over the last few months of the season.
The Cubs, by contrast, went 11-13 in September and struggled to get the job done in clutch spots.
In Pete Crow-Armstrong, they have the NL MVP favorite, but their pitching hasn't been great, and they may struggle to slow down such an in-form team, particularly at home.
The home team went 51-30 at Petco Park in the regular season while the Cubs were 43-38 on the road. In Game 1, San Diego is worth sticking with to continue their hot streak.
King has had a solid year, with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He had a rough start against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last outing but, before that, had given up just five earned runs across four starts of at least six innings.
The Cubs' Boyd has been hit hard by the Padres this year, giving up eight earned runs in nine innings across two starts against these opponents. His record against Manny Machado is particularly worrying, with the 34-year-old posting a 1.292 OPS when facing this lefty.
To make matters worse for Chicago, they face a lights-out Padres bullpen, highlighted by Mason Miller. San Diego's closer led the majors in fWAR among relievers at 3.7, as well as strikeouts at 129.
While the Cubs' offense is undoubtedly respected, home-field advantage could be crucial in this one, and if the game is tight, expect the Padres' bullpen to shut things down and the home team to win Game 1.
Pete Crow-Armstrong over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Crow-Armstrong has had a remarkable season, slashing .280/.372/.570 with a .942 OPS and leading the majors with 45 home runs.
He also has an impressive record against the San Diego Padres, hitting four home runs and posting a 1.391 OPS in the six games he has played against them.
If anyone is to give the Cubs a chance of winning Game 1, it will almost certainly be PCA, who is taken for over 1.5 total bases in this clash.
Ian Happ over 1.5 strikeouts (+150)
Only six players in the majors have struck out more times than the Chicago Cubs' Ian Happ this season and he looks a decent option to be punched out two or more times in Game 1.
The left-fielder is fresh from a start against the Boston Red Sox in which he struck out three times. If he is still in the game, he looks set to struggle badly against the Padres' dominant bullpen.
Take this four-time Gold Glover to strike out more than once.
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San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Odds
San Diego Padres | -138 ML |
Chicago Cubs | +105 ML |
Run Line | Padres -1.5 |
Total | O/U 7 |
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs player props
Player Home Run Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHI Cubs) | +325 |
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD Padres) | +390 |
Manny Machado (SD Padres) | +425 |
Jackson Merrill (SD Padres) | +525 |
Seiya Suzuki (CHI Cubs) | +575 |
Ty France (SD Padres) | +575 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
