Minnesota Twins and San Francisco Giants open a three-game series Monday night at Oracle Park with both clubs playing out the final stretch of disappointing MLB seasons.
Minnesota enters at 73-83 after splitting four games with the Angels, while San Francisco has dropped to 64-92 following a three-game sweep at Dodger Stadium.
Neither roster is close to full strength, but the Giants have been especially ravaged by injuries. Rafael Devers and his 37 home runs are done for the season, while Harrison Bader, Matt Chapman, Marcelo Mayer, Logan Webb and several other regulars or key pitchers are also unavailable. Jung Hoo Lee exited Sunday with a groin issue, and Bryce Eldridge remains day-to-day in concussion protocol.
That leaves San Francisco running out something much closer to a Triple-A lineup than the roster it expected to have in September.
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants betting picks and predictions
Twins -1.5 (+140)
Minnesota is not exactly entering this series in dominant form, but this is more about the fading roster San Francisco is currently forced to field.
The Giants lineup used against the Dodgers over the weekend had only 48 combined major league home runs this season, and only three players in that series had slugging percentages above .400.
That is a major issue against any opponent, even one with Minnesota's own pitching concerns.
The Twins still have legitimate middle-of-the-order power despite losing Byron Buxton for the season and playing without Trevor Larnach and rookie shortstop Kaelen Culpepper.
Kody Clemens has 26 home runs, while Josh Bell has 20 homers and 91 RBIs. Minnesota also enters off an 8-0 win over the Angels in which Alan Roden went deep and drove in four.
Zebby Matthews gets the start for the Twins, and his 4.74 ERA does not inspire complete confidence. He has also been much worse away from home, carrying a 6.93 road ERA.
Still, San Francisco simply does not have enough healthy proven bats to consistently punish mistakes right now. Matthews has also shown he can handle ordinary lineups when his command is intact, and the Giants' diminished depth gives him a chance to navigate five or six innings without having to face much danger outside a few spots.
The pitching matchup on the other side is hardly intimidating.
Blade Tidwell enters with a 4.54 ERA and has allowed five of his seven home runs this season at Oracle Park. He has been better after the first trip through the order, but Minnesota should have enough opportunities early to build a lead.
The Giants have lost six of their last seven against American League opponents, while Minnesota has won four of its last five meetings with San Francisco.
This venue normally makes laying -1.5 uncomfortable, but the Giants' injury situation changes the equation.
Minnesota has enough healthy major league bats to create separation. San Francisco does not.
Over 8 Total Runs (-115)
Oracle Park is one of the toughest places in baseball to bet an Over, but the starting pitching creates enough volatility to do it anyway.
Matthews' 6.93 road ERA is difficult to ignore, and his effectiveness declines sharply as opposing hitters get additional looks. Matthews is solid the first time through an order, but hitters have produced an .820 OPS against him the second time through.
San Francisco's lineup is depleted, but even a weakened offense can scrape together three or four runs against a starter who has consistently struggled away from home.
Tidwell owns a 5.88 ERA at Oracle Park and has surrendered five of his seven home runs there. Six of those seven homers have come against left-handed batters, which is especially relevant with Bell and Clemens providing Minnesota's biggest power threats.
Minnesota just scored eight runs Sunday, and this Giants pitching staff is also missing several arms.
San Francisco's bullpen depth has been weakened by injuries, while the Twins' relief group has its own holes. That leaves both teams exposed if either starter exits early.
The Giants' offensive limitations are the main argument against the Over, but eight is a manageable number when both starters have significant negative splits.
The Twins may need to do most of the work, but something like 6-3 or 6-4 is in range.
Josh Bell To Hit A Home Run (+525)
Bell is the player to target for a long ball because his power profile fits this matchup better than most of Minnesota's lineup.
Fourteen of his 20 home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, while 13 have been hit away from home.
That already matches up well against Tidwell.
The Giants right-hander has surrendered six of his seven home runs to left-handed hitters, and five of those seven have come at Oracle Park.
Since the beginning of August, Bell owns an OPS above .800 with seven home runs. His underlying contact quality backs up the production, too.
Bell ranks in the 77th percentile in expected slugging percentage and, despite being 34, remains above average in both barrel rate and average exit velocity.
He has also hit two fewer home runs than his expected total this season.
Most importantly for Oracle Park, Bell has shown enough raw power to clear the dimensions. Ten of his 20 home runs have qualified as no-doubters, according to Statcast.
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Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants Odds
Minnesota Twins | -120 ML |
San Francisco Giants | +100 ML |
Run Line | Twins -1.5 |
Total | O/U 8 |
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants player props
Player Home Run Odds
Kody Clemens (MIN Twins) | +390 |
Josh Bell (MIN Twins) | +525 |
Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN Twins) | +700 |
Ryan Jeffers (MIN Twins) | +750 |
Brooks Lee (MIN Twins) | +750 |
Royce Lewis (MIN Twins) | +750 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
