Boston Red Sox open a critical three-game series against the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night at Globe Life Field with both teams still fighting for their place in the American League playoff picture.
Boston enters at 82-68, sitting second in the AL Wild Card race, while Texas is 74-76 and only 1.5 games behind Cleveland for the third and final Wild Card spot.
The Rangers received some help Monday when the White Sox beat the Guardians, but that only matters if Texas takes care of its own business.
Boston has the stronger recent offense, the better bullpen and should also get stars Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela back from the injured list. With vulnerable left-handed starters on both sides, this matchup sets up well for runs.
Red Sox vs. Rangers betting picks and predictions
Red Sox Money Line (-130)
The Red Sox own baseball's best bullpen ERA at 3.14, while Texas ranks 22nd at 4.52. In a game where both starters could have difficulty getting through six innings cleanly, that gap could be the difference between winning and losing.
The Red Sox also rank fourth in MLB with a .767 OPS since the All-Star break, compared to Texas at .713, which ranks 16th. Boston has been balanced between both sides of the plate, posting a .728 OPS from its left-handed hitters and .724 from the right side.
The Rangers left-hander, Cody Bradford, is 0-5 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, and both sides of the plate have hurt him.
The middle of Boston's lineup crushed Rangers pitching in that series. Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Contreras combined for eight extra-base hits in the 10-1 win, with all three homering.
Contreras finished the series with seven hits, including three home runs and two doubles, while Abreu added a homer, a couple of doubles and multiple run-producing singles.
Patrick Sandoval carries his own concerns as the Red Sox starting pitcher. He has a 4.58 ERA overall and has been worse recently, posting a 6.12 ERA across his last five outings. His night-game ERA sits at 4.74, and his reverse splits are even more extreme than Bradford's.
The encouraging part for Boston is that Sandoval has historically handled this Texas lineup, allowing only seven hits in 41 at-bats. Corey Seager is just 3-for-19 against him.
The Rangers have enough offense to make this competitive, but Boston's lineup and bullpen is more trustworthy over nine innings.
Over 8 total runs (-105)
Both teams rank inside the top five in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching. Texas is fourth at .766, while Boston is fifth at .750.
Now each offense gets a left-handed starter with serious platoon problems. Sandoval has allowed an OPS near .970 to left-handed hitters, while Bradford has been tagged for a .958 OPS by lefties. Neither has been particularly effective against right-handed hitters, either.
There is also recent head-to-head evidence pointing in the same direction, as Boston took two of three from Texas in June, and all three games cleared this total. The Red Sox won 10-1 and 6-3, while Texas took the other game 6-4.
Those offenses are also healthier now than they were during that June matchup.
The Rangers should contribute enough against Sandoval, especially considering his recent form, and if this game turns into a bullpen battle, Texas becomes more vulnerable.
Boston's relief corps should eventually shut the door, but the Rangers bullpen has enough problems to help push this game well beyond eight.
Something in the 6-4 range feels very realistic.
Wilyer Abreu to hit a home run (+450)
Contreras is tempting given his history against Texas and his .945 OPS with a .541 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching, but +320 is too short for a home-run wager.
Instead, Abreu owns a team-best .988 OPS over the last seven days and has also been Boston's most productive hitter since the All-Star break, leading the team with an .884 OPS and 13 home runs during that span.
Abreu is a left-handed batter, but he has destroyed left-handed pitching this season, hitting .309 with a .512 slugging percentage and .908 OPS.
Abreu also had success with five hits and five RBIs against Texas when these clubs met in June. At +450, I like the combination of current form, matchup and price.
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Red Sox vs. Rangers Odds
Boston Red Sox | -130 |
Texas Rangers | +110 |
Run Line | BOS Red Sox -1.5 |
Total | O.U 8.0 |
Red Sox vs. Rangers player props
Player home run odds
Willson Contreras (BOS Red Sox) | +320 |
Jahmai Jones (BOS Red Sox) | +390 |
Corey Seager (TEX Rangers) | +390 |
Wilyer Abreu (BOS Red Sox) | +450 |
Jake Burger (TEX Rangers) | +450 |
Trevor Story (BOS Red Sox) | +450 |
Roman Anthony (BOS Red Sox) | +500 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
