Game two of this three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals gets underway at Busch Stadium at 7:45 PM ET on Wednesday.
It has been a stacked NL Central division this year, with everyone finding ways to win more than they lose.
Interestingly, both clubs have mirrored each other by performing just as well, if not better, on the road than at home.
St. Louis is an impressive 15-8 on the road but just 13-11 in front of their home fans. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 11-11 on the road compared to 13-13 at PNC Park.
Wednesday's pitching matchup features two young right-handers looking to establish themselves as permanent rotation mainstays.
Pirates vs. Cardinals betting picks and predictions
Cardinals ML (-120)
The St. Louis Cardinals sent right-hander Michael McGreevy to the mound on Wednesday night. McGreevy has been excellent on the surface this season, pitching to a stellar 2.10 ERA and an elite 0.88 WHIP across 51.1 innings. He has been particularly dominant at Busch Stadium, logging a microscopic 1.17 ERA in four home starts.
McGreevy also benefits from an absence of severe platoon splits; left-handed hitters are batting just .198 with a .580 OPS against him, while righties drop to a .172 average and .517 OPS.
Pittsburgh counters with Carmen Mlodzinski, who has a 4.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 45 innings. Mlodzinski has experienced distinct road struggles, posting a 4.94 ERA away from home. Furthermore, he has an extreme vulnerability to left-handed bats, surrendering a staggering .327 average and .881 OPS to lefties.
While the Pirates have left-handed power, their collective offense falls off a cliff when leaving Pittsburgh, ranking 28th in the major leagues with a meager .643 road OPS.
Expect the Cardinals to exploit Mlodzinski's splits and build enough of a lead to survive a potential late-inning bullpen-fueled meltdown.
Over 7.5 Total Runs (-115)
While both starting pitchers look like they hold the upper hand against underperforming home/away splits, a deeper look at the underlying metrics hints at a high-scoring environment.
Neither bullpen is built to protect a tight lead cleanly right now, as the Cardinals own a bottom-tier 4.47 bullpen ERA (22nd in MLB) and the Pirates sit in the middle of the pack with a 4.10 bullpen ERA.
Additionally, both starters possess highly concerning analytical profiles on Baseball Savant. Mlodzinski sits in the first percentile in average exit velocity allowed and holds a poor .285 expected batting average (xBA).
McGreevy's surface numbers are screaming for regression as well. His expected ERA (xERA) sits at an alarming 5.76 (12th percentile) compared to his actual 2.10 mark, and his xBA of .288 is deeply troubling.
He does not generate much chase or whiff, meaning the Pirates' bats will make plenty of contact.
With optimal game-time weather hovering around 70 degrees under partly cloudy skies, look for both offences to break out and easily push this past the 7.5-run threshold.
Oneil Cruz To Hit A Home Run (+500)
If any batter in the Pittsburgh lineup is perfectly equipped to break open Michael McGreevy’s looming statistical regression, it is Oneil Cruz.
Cruz enters Wednesday's matchup leading the Pirates in RBIs and sitting second on the squad with 10 home runs.
The imposing outfielder has shown a distinct fondness for travelling, hitting seven of his 10 long balls on the road while generating a robust .847 road OPS (compared to a .745 mark at home).
Cruz's Statcast profile is entirely elite. He ranks in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity (96 mph), 100th percentile in hard-hit rate (61.5%), 100th percentile in bat speed and the 96th percentile in barrel rate (18.1%).
McGreevy is highly prone to giving up barrels when his pinpoint command wavers, having already surrendered six home runs this year. With new addition Brandon Lowe also drawing attention in the lineup, Cruz should see pitch sequences he can drive deep into the St. Louis night.
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Pirates vs. Cardinals odds
Pirates | +100 |
Cardinals | -120 |
Run Line | Cardinals -1.5 |
Total | O/U 7.5 |
Pirates vs. Cardinals player props
Player home run odds
Brandon Lowe (PIT Pirates) | +475 |
Oneil Cruz (PIT Pirates) | +500 |
Jordan Walker (STL Cardinals) | +525 |
Nolan Gorman (STL Cardinals) | +625 |
Alec Burleson (STL Cardinals) | +625 |
Bryan Reynolds (PIT Pirates) | +700 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
