Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins step into the cornfields Thursday night for MLB's return to the Field of Dreams in Dyersville, Iowa.
First pitch is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on Netflix, with both teams wearing throwback uniforms at the newly renovated Field of Dreams site.
Philadelphia turn to Aaron Nola, while Minnesota counters with Taj Bradley in a matchup between two teams fighting for Wild Card positioning.
The Phillies arrive after dropping two straight series, including Wednesday's 7-1 loss in St. Louis.
Minnesota, meanwhile, rallied past Baltimore 7-5 Wednesday and sits within striking distance of the final AL Wild Card spot.
With an unfamiliar ballpark, rain potentially entering the equation and two vulnerable bullpens, there are plenty of variables to consider. Let's get into our three best bets.
Phillies vs. Twins betting picks and predictions
Phillies Money Line (-110)
This is essentially a pick'em and, at that price, I'll side with Philadelphia's superior top-end talent.
The Phillies haven't played their best baseball these past two series, but they have generally responded well after losses, ranking eighth in MLB with a .741 OPS in those situations.
Their offense is top-heavy, but Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and, since the break, Trea Turner and Bryson Stott, give Philadelphia more game-changing bats than Minnesota can counter with, particularly if Byron Buxton remains unavailable.
Turner and Stott have each posted an OPS north of .900 since the All-Star break, while Harper and Schwarber are both above .800.
Bradley is certainly the more trustworthy starter Thursday. He enters 9-4 with a 3.76 ERA and ranks 13th in baseball with 148 strikeouts.
However, his splits away from home are less impressive. Bradley has a 4.26 road ERA compared to 3.12 at home, along with a 4.21 ERA at night.
Philadelphia's hitters are also 6-for-20 against him with two doubles and two home runs. Schwarber and Turner have each taken Bradley deep, while Harper has doubled twice in three at-bats.
Nola's 5.47 ERA makes this uncomfortable, but Minnesota's active hitters are just 10-for-69 against him.
Philadelphia at -110 offers enough value for me to trust its stars in a showcase game.
Over 8.5 total runs (-120)
This is my favorite bet on the board.
Nola has allowed an alarming 29 home runs this season while pitching to a 5.47 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
His platoon splits don't provide much refuge, either. Lefties are hitting .278 with an .870 OPS against him, while righties own a .282 average and .816 OPS.
That's particularly interesting with Josh Bell swinging such a hot bat. Bell is hitting .342 with a 1.054 OPS in August and has three career home runs against Nola.
Bradley isn't immune to damage himself. He owns a 4.91 ERA through two August starts, and although left-handed hitters have just a .206 average against him, they have connected for 12 home runs.
That creates opportunities for Harper and Schwarber.
Then come the bullpens. Minnesota ranks among baseball's bottom five with a 4.79 bullpen ERA, while Philadelphia isn't much better at 4.47.
The Twins also enter Thursday with a 68-52-2 Over/Under record.
An unfamiliar venue and potential rain add some unpredictability, but both starters can surrender the long ball and neither relief corps inspires much confidence.
Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+375)
If we're betting the Over, let's attack one of the hitters best positioned to help get us there.
Harper snapped a three-game hitless stretch with a double Wednesday, and his recent underlying production is much more encouraging than that brief skid suggests.
He owns an .870 OPS since the All-Star break and has already gone deep three times in August while producing an OPS north of 1.000 this month.
The matchup works, too. Harper is hitting .284 with a .994 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
He has also been dangerous away from Philadelphia, producing an .836 OPS with 12 home runs, and his numbers climb to a .916 OPS with 17 homers at night.
Then there's the tiny but encouraging history against Bradley: two doubles in three at-bats.
Bradley has been tougher on left-handed hitters from a batting-average standpoint, but they have supplied 12 of the 17 home runs he's surrendered and Harper is exactly the type of hitter capable of punishing one mistake.
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Phillies vs. Twins odds
Philadelphia Phillies | -110 ML |
Minnesota Twins | -110 ML |
Run Line | PHI Phillies -1.5 |
Total | O/U 8.5 |
Phillies vs. Twins player props
Home run odds
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | +265 |
Byron Buxton (Twins) | +320 |
Kody Clemens (Twins) | +355 |
Bryce Harper (Phillies) | +375 |
Josh Bell (Twins) | +400 |
Royce Lewis (Twins) | +475 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
