Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers continue their final regular-season series Tuesday night after Milwaukee escaped with a 4-3 win in Monday's series opener.
Chicago carried a 2-1 lead into the late innings before the Brewers struck for three runs in the eighth, handing the Cubs their second consecutive loss. Pete Crow-Armstrong remained red hot with another home run, but Milwaukee did just enough to improve to 89-56.
The Brewers have been excellent at American Family Field, while Chicago has been one of baseball's best road offenses. That creates an intriguing matchup with Jacob Misiorowski starting for Milwaukee opposite left-hander David Peterson.
Milwaukee deserves to be favored behind its ace, but the price is steep. Chicago's recent offensive form and its matchup against right-handed pitching give the Cubs a realistic chance to keep this close and potentially produce another high-scoring divisional battle.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers betting picks and predictions
Cubs +1.5 (-120)
Brewers' right-hander Misiorowski enters 14-5 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.79 WHIP across 155 innings. His combination of velocity, strikeouts, and ability to limit baserunners makes him one of the tougher starters in baseball to bet against.
Still, laying -210 on Milwaukee or asking the Brewers to win by multiple runs against this Cubs offense feels like a bit much.
Chicago ranks second in baseball with a .750 road OPS and has been even better since the All-Star break, leading MLB with an .815 OPS over that stretch.
Crow-Armstrong has been at the center of that surge. He enters on a six-game hitting streak and has been ridiculous over his last 10 games, batting .333 with eight home runs and 14 RBIs. He has also homered in each of the Cubs' last two games against Milwaukee.
Alex Bregman has been another major second-half catalyst, giving Chicago multiple hitters capable of changing a game with one swing.
The handedness matchup also favors the Cubs more than the pitching reputations might suggest. Chicago ranks third in baseball with a .756 OPS against right-handed pitching, exactly what it will see from Misiorowski.
And the Cubs have already shown they can get to him. His recent line includes outings in which he has allowed five and three earned runs, so he hasn't been completely untouchable despite the sparkling season numbers.
Milwaukee's offense is dangerous at home, ranking seventh with a .764 OPS, but the Brewers sit only 17th against left-handed pitching at .698. Peterson's 5.39 ERA and 1.56 WHIP are obviously concerning, especially after Milwaukee tagged him for six earned runs in 3.2 innings in their previous meeting, but Chicago does not need him to dominate to cash this wager.
That has been a profitable profile recently, with Chicago covering the run line in 12 consecutive games as a road underdog after playing the previous day.
Over 7.5 Total Runs (-110)
The starting pitching matchup might initially push bettors toward the Under, particularly because Misiorowski owns a sub-2.00 ERA and Milwaukee has one of baseball's better pitching staffs.
But 7.5 is low enough to go the other way. Chicago's offense has simply been too productive to ignore. The Cubs own baseball's best OPS since the All-Star break and rank third against right-handed pitching, while their road production has been among the league's best all season.
The Brewers are not far behind offensively. They rank fourth in OPS since the break and seventh at home, where their lineup has consistently created pressure.
Peterson provides the clearest path to Milwaukee contributing heavily to the total. The Brewers may rank only 17th in OPS against lefties, but specific matchup history still matters.
Jackson Chourio has had significant success against Peterson, and Milwaukee's lineup has enough depth to capitalize if the Cubs starter again struggles with traffic.
Misiorowski may also need to be excellent to keep this number down. Chicago has already shown it can score against him, and the Cubs are capable of producing runs without relying solely on homers because of their combination of power, patience, and extra-base ability.
Tuesday offers a weaker Chicago starting pitching profile and two lineups that rank among MLB's best since the break.
Something like 5-4 is very much in play.
Jackson Chourio To Hit a Home Run (+500)
The Brewers outfielder already has an excellent history against Peterson, going 5-for-11 with two home runs and a double in their previous meetings.
That's enough familiarity to make +500 appealing on its own, but Chourio's broader track record against Cubs pitching makes the case even stronger.
He owns a .346 batting average and .917 OPS across 78 career at-bats against active Chicago pitchers. He has also homered against Daniel Palencia and gone 3-for-4 against Ryan Zeferjahn, giving this prop potential even if Peterson exits before Chourio can take him deep.
That matters for a home run wager. We are not relying on one specific plate appearance against one specific pitcher.
Peterson's struggles this season make the opening matchup attractive, while Chicago's bullpen still gives Chourio opportunities later.
He also played a key role in Monday's victory, driving in two runs as Milwaukee rallied late.
At +500, I'll back the combination of matchup history, power and familiarity.
If Peterson makes another mistake over the plate, Chourio has already shown he knows exactly what to do with it.
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Cubs vs. Brewers Odds
Chicago Cubs | +175 ML |
Milwaukee Brewers | -210 ML |
Run Line | MIL Brewers -1.5 |
Total | O/U 7.5 |
Cubs vs. Brewers player props
Player Home Run Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHI Cubs) | +400 |
Jackson Chourio (MIL Brewers) | +500 |
Michael Busch (CHI Cubs) | +700 |
William Contreras (MIL Brewers) | +700 |
Ian Happ (CHI Cubs) | +700 |
Seiya Suzuki (CHI Cubs) | +700 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
