No. 11 Texas looks to strengthen its College Football Playoff hopes when it hosts Mississippi State Saturday at 7:30 PM ET in Austin.
The Longhorns (5-2, 2-2 SEC) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 34-27 victory over the seventh-ranked Rebels last Saturday. However, Texas nearly squandered a 21-point halftime advantage, highlighting the inconsistency that has plagued the team this season.
Mississippi State (4-3, 2-3 SEC) faces an even more difficult situation.
The Bulldogs opened the season with four consecutive victories and climbed to No. 16 nationally before dropping three straight games. Their latest setback was a 23-15 home loss to Oklahoma.
Making matters worse, starting quarterback Kamario Taylor underwent season-ending foot surgery Wednesday after aggravating an injury against the Sooners.
Taylor had thrown for 1,460 yards and 17 touchdowns this season while providing a dangerous rushing threat.
Without him, Mississippi State must rely on inexperienced quarterback Parker Puckett or veteran transfer AJ Swann against a formidable Texas defense.
The Longhorns have won both previous meetings between these programs, including a dramatic 45-38 overtime victory in Starkville last season.
Mississippi State vs. Texas betting picks and predictions
Mississippi State +20.5 (-114)
Texas should win this matchup comfortably, but laying nearly three touchdowns with a team that has repeatedly struggled to put opponents away carries considerable risk.
Their last three games illustrate the problem.
Texas lost consecutive 27-24 decisions to Oklahoma and Florida before defeating Ole Miss 34-27. Even that victory became unnecessarily dramatic after the Longhorns surrendered a commanding halftime lead.
Mississippi State's quarterback situation certainly favors Texas.
Taylor's absence removes the Bulldogs' most dynamic offensive weapon. Puckett completed 17 of 24 passes against Oklahoma, throwing one touchdown and one interception, but he remains inexperienced.
Swann offers another option after previously starting 18 combined games between Vanderbilt and Appalachian State.
Neither quarterback possesses Taylor's combination of passing production and mobility.
The Bulldogs also face problems along their offensive line. Starting guard DJ Chester has been ruled out, while the unit surrendered four sacks against Oklahoma.
That would ordinarily present a favorable matchup for Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons, who has recorded 10.5 sacks this season.
However, Simmons is out with an ankle injury after missing the Ole Miss game, while starting offensive tackle Trevor Goosby is also out after he suffered a knee injury against the Rebels.
Those absences could complicate matters for a Longhorns team that has not consistently dominated opponents.
Mississippi State has enough offensive talent to produce occasional scoring opportunities, particularly if Texas again struggles with concentration after building a lead.
The Bulldogs average about 30 points and 440 yards per game, though those numbers came largely with Taylor available.
Expect Texas to control the contest, but a spread exceeding 20 points leaves room for Mississippi State to cover.
Under 50.5 (-108)
Taylor's season-ending injury is the biggest reason to favor a lower-scoring contest.
Mississippi State has scored just 15 points across its last two games, suffering a 31-0 shutout against LSU before falling to Oklahoma.
Facing Texas without its starting quarterback makes another difficult offensive performance likely.
The Longhorns allow approximately 19 points and 285 yards per game, ranking among the nation's stronger defensive units.
Mississippi State's offensive line injuries create additional problems against that defense, even if Simmons remains sidelined.
Texas averages approximately 31 points per game, but its offense has also been inconsistent.
Quarterback Arch Manning has thrown for 1,507 yards and 12 touchdowns, while running back Raleek Brown leads the team with 422 rushing yards.
The Longhorns could lean heavily on their running game if they establish an early advantage, reducing possessions and shortening the second half.
Mississippi State's defense has struggled at times, particularly against Alabama, but Texas may not need an explosive offensive performance to secure victory.
A controlled game featuring limited Bulldogs scoring opportunities makes the Under attractive.
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Mississippi State vs. Texas odds
Mississippi State | +950 |
Texas | -1700 |
Spread | Texas -20.5 |
Total Points | O/U 50.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
