Michael Penix Jr. vs. Tua Tagovailoa: Who Will Start Week 1? Odds

The NFL's offseason training programs are underway for every team, and plenty of quarterback competitions are expected to take place.

Between the Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, and Cleveland Browns, teams are still looking to determine their starting quarterback for Week 1.

In this article, we'll focus on the odds for the Falcons' Week 1 starting QB. Check out the odds for the Browns' Week 1 starter here, and the Raiders' starting QB here.

Atlanta drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, but a string of injuries have held him back from consistently showing that he can be their QB of the future.

Penix Jr. suffered a partially torn left ACL injury in November of last year and isn't going through his normal workload, which includes 11-on-11s, but he expects to be cleared in time for training camp next month. "If it was up to me, I'd do 11-on-11 now," he said on Tuesday, June 16. That gives Penix Jr. a solid chance to show his new coaching staff that he's worthy of being the starter going forward.

In response to his uncertainty regarding his health, the Falcons subsequently signed former Miami Dolphins' QB Tua Tagovailoa.

Both are lefty quarterbacks, but that's about where the comparisons end. Penix Jr. undoubtedly has the stronger arm, bigger body, and higher potential, but he doesn't have much experience and didn't perform at a high enough level when healthy to be the clear-cut QB1 heading into the 2026 season.

Penix Jr. can make all the throws needed out of a franchise quarterback, but his mechanics can lead to wild throws, and his legs aren't threatening for a defense.

Tagovailoa, on the other hand, was deemed expendable by the Dolphins in large part due to his weak arm and injury history. He's been reckless with his body, failing to protect himself, and his head, over the course of his career. His concussions put a dent in his development, and after throwing 15 interceptions last year, he was released by Miami.

At his best, Tua gets the ball out of his hand extremely quickly, hitting receivers in stride towards the middle of the field. His arm isn't strong enough to consistently hit his targets outside the numbers, and his deep ball leaves a lot to be desired, but he'll put his receivers in good positions for YAC.

It's a tricky equation for a Falcons team that hired QB guru Kevin Stefanski as head coach in the offseason. The Falcons have the o-line and weaponry to be a high-level offense, and they'll have to figure out which one of their lefties slingers gives them the best chance to unlock it.

The ceiling for a Tagovailoa-offense is certainly low, and he would be exposed in a potential playoff game, but does he give them a better chance to be more consistent throughout the regular season? Atlanta will need to answer that question prior to Week 1.

Check out the odds for the Falcons' starting quarterback for Week 1 of the regular season below:

Atlanta Falcons Week 1 Starting Quarterback Odds - Penix or Tua?

Tua Tagovailoa	-180
Michael Penix Jr.	+140
Trevor Siemian	+8000

As of mid-June, oddsmakers believe Tagovailoa will start Week 1. The injury concern for Penix Jr. and his recovery seem to outweigh his clear talent advantage over his competitor.

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All odds written in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.