The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets open a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night, and for once this season, the pitching matchup does not immediately hand one club a decisive edge.
Aaron Nola takes the ball for the home side in what has been one of the more quietly difficult storylines of Philadelphia's 2026 campaign.
The veteran right-hander is carrying a 5.75 ERA and a career-high 1.43 WHIP, numbers that would be alarming from almost any arm in a rotation built to contend.
Against him is Christian Scott, a Mets starter whose own season-line of a 3.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP makes this game feel closer than it should be.
The Phillies come in at 54-43, still very much in the thick of the NL East race, while the Mets sit at 40-57, well out of playoff contention and playing out the string with one eye on the trade deadline.
First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN and here are our picks for Phillies vs. Mets tonight.
Phillies vs. Mets Betting Picks & Predictions
New York Mets - ML (+110)
This is the matchup where facing the Phillies makes the most sense all season.
Nola has been one of the most frustrating pitchers in the National League in 2026, surrendering at least two earned runs in 12 consecutive starts and in 17 of his 19 starts.
The Mets know this better than anyone. In Nola's most recent start against New York, Juan Soto hit two solo home runs off him to ignite a 6-4 Mets win at Citizens Bank Park.
Nola generated six strikeouts on 97 pitches but could not escape Soto's damage, and that pattern of solid peripheral numbers masking a porous result has defined his 2026 season.
Scott is no more reliable, but he does not need to be. He just needs to be functional for five innings against a Phillies lineup that has been built around Schwarber and Harper's power rather than on-base volume.
The Mets' problem all season has been run support, not pitching competitiveness. When Scott is merely adequate, New York's lineup, anchored by Soto, Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos, is capable of making the most of it.
On the road as a +110 underdog against a Phillies starter who just surrendered two home runs to Soto in this exact ballpark, the Mets represent real value.
Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+220)
Soto has been the most dangerous hitter in this series all season, and his relationship with Nola's four-seam fastball is the central reason to back him here.
After already going deep twice off Nola in their last meeting, his second multi-homer game of the year, Soto enters Thursday on a three-game streak without a homer; he's due.
Nola's four-seamer is the most exposed pitch in his arsenal, and it is the pitch Soto has punished most severely in their previous encounters this year.
Citizens Bank Park, despite its reputation as a friendly home venue, is not kind to pitchers who leave elevated fastballs over the middle of the plate against left-handed pull hitters.
Soto bats left, pulls consistently, and has already demonstrated in this building that Nola cannot keep him off the scoreboard.
Getting plus-money on a hitter this hot in a matchup where the results already exist in the ledger is the best number on the board tonight.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site.
Phillies vs. Mets MLB odds
Philadelphia Phillies | -130 |
New York Mets | +110 |
Run Line | PHI -1.5 (+150) |
Total Runs | O/U 9.5 |
Phillies vs. Mets player props
Player home run odds
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +170 |
Juan Soto (NYM) | +220 |
Bryce Harper (PHI) | +260 |
Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +395 |
Brandon Marsh (PHI) | +410 |
Jorge Polanco (NYM) | +410 |
Read the latest MLB news on site
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
