Two AFC West rivals, the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs, close out an exciting Week 1 slate with an incredible Monday night matchup tonight.
The Broncos have yet to beat Mahomes at home in his career, but Sean Payton has transformed Denver from being a bottom-of-the-barrel team in 2022 to a true Super Bowl contender in 2026.
Historically, these games have been tight, low-scoring affairs. Denver has managed to contain Mahomes - his 92.1 career rating against them is the second-worst mark amongst teams that Mahomes has played as least five times.
The issue for Denver has been the inability to score consistently throughout the years, but hopes are high within the clubhouse and fanbase that Jaylen Waddle will truly unlock Nix in the quarterback's third year. Hopes are also high in Kansas City where Kenneth Walker III will give them the best talent at the running back position in the Mahomes era.
The Broncos are projected to be more of a high-flying unit looking to take advantage of Waddle and Courtland Sutton, while the Chiefs could become a run-first, play-action oriented offense after their production has fallen off significantly on that side of the ball in recent years.
Below is a list of all the stat-based markets provided by Elias. Be sure to also check out our partner authors' expert betting picks and predictions for Broncos vs. Chiefs on site.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Elias Insights Betting Specials
Dobbins 30+ Receiving Yards & 40 or Fewer Rushing Yards (+2500)
J.K. Dobbins has gained 30+ yards receiving in each of his two previous games against the Chiefs (38 for the Ravens in 2020, 30 for the Chargers in 2024). Those are the only two regular season games in his career in which Dobbins gained at least 30 yards through the air. But Dobbins failed to reach 40 yards rushing in either of those games, a milestone he has achieved in each of his 19 regular season contests dating back to his most recent appearance against Kansas City in 2024.
Mahomes 38+ Pass Attempts & 1 or Fewer Pass TD (+1000)
In each of his last four starts against the Broncos, Patrick Mahomes has thrown at least 38 passes with no more than one going for a touchdown. That is the longest streak by an NFL quarterback against any team since Drew Brees, versus the Falcons from 2014 to 2016 (4 straight). The only QBs in NFL history to attempt 38+ passes with one or fewer TD passes in five straight starts versus one opponent are Jeff George (vs. Saints, 1994-1997) and Kurt Warner (vs. Giants, 2001-2008). Mahomes himself has never had such a streak longer than one start against any other team.
Nix 1 or Fewer INT & DEN Win by 1-7 Points (+165)
Bo Nix has thrown zero or one interception in each of his last six road starts dating back to last October, all of which the Broncos won by margins of between one and seven points. No other NFL quarterback since 1950 has done that in as many as five consecutive away starts (no more than one INT, team wins by 1-7).
Walker 100+ Rush Yards & 2+ Rush TDs (+2200)
Only one reigning Super Bowl MVP has rushed for 100+ yards in his team's first game the following season: Emmitt Smith (171) for Dallas at Pittsburgh in 1994. Three Super Bowl MVPs have scored multiple rushing TDs in the next season's opener: Miami's Larry Csonka in 1974 (2 at New England), Denver's Terrell Davis in 1998 (2 vs. New England), and Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts in 2025 (2 vs. Dallas).
All odds written in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
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