Portugal must beat Colombia in Miami if they are to secure top spot in Group K. The South Americans have won both of their games in the group stage so far, and they can expect strong support in Florida as they aim to pip Portugal to first place.
Colombia vs. Portugal betting picks and predictions
Colombia or tie double chance (-110)
Colombia has restricted its opponents to only three shots on target at the World Cup so far, and that defensive organisation should cause problems for Portugal.
While Roberto Martinez’s side were 5-0 winners over Uzbekistan last time out, they had toiled against DR Congo in their opener. They lacked cutting edge in the final third and failed to carve out chances, mustering only seven shots in that game.
DR Congo edged that contest in terms of Expected Goals generated, before Colombia dispatched the Leopards 1-0. That makes Portugal appear worth opposing in this key clash, especially as Colombia only needs a point to secure first place, and a potentially easier path in the knockouts.
Colombia heads into this clash having won eight of its last 12 matches, while it has suffered only two defeats in 15. Los Cafeteros can continue that fine run against a Portugal side that has a habit of delivering underwhelming displays at major tournaments.
Luis Diaz to score (+333)
Luis Diaz has taken seven shots across his first two matches at the World Cup, and the Bayern Munich winger stands out in the goalscorer markets ahead of this key clash.
Diaz has scored 30 times for club and country since his move to Germany last summer. He netted key goals against Brazil and Argentina in qualifying to guide Colombia to the tournament, and he looks like their standout player in the final third.
Diaz led all players in terms of xG in the win over DR Congo, after recording a goal and an assist in their win over Uzbekistan.
Portugal hasn’t been great defensively, keeping only three clean sheets across its last nine matches. The Selecao should struggle to keep Colombia quiet in Miami, and Diaz heads into the game having recorded at least two shots on target in five of his last six competitive internationals.
Correct Score - 1-1 (+600)
Portugal has shared draws with DR Congo and Mexico in 2026, and struggled towards the end of the qualifying campaign. After narrowly escaping with a 1-0 win in its home meeting with the Republic of Ireland thanks to an added-time strike, the Portuguese drew 2-2 at home to Hungary and lost 2-0 in Dublin.
Their routine win over Uzbekistan has left Portugal as strong favorites for the three points, but Colombia looks capable of securing the point it needs to finish top of the pile.
Nestor Lorenzo’s men have won four straight games, while they drew as many games as they won in qualifying (7), suffering only four defeats in 18 matches.
There should still be some entertainment for the supporters in Miami, with impressive attacking talent on both sides. Three of Portugal’s last four matches have finished with both teams scoring, as have four of Colombia’s six matches since the March international break.
A 1-1 draw is my final tip, which is decent value at +600. Given how Portugal struggled to make much headway in the second half of its clash with DR Congo, it is easy to see this one petering out with both sides already safely through to the last 32.
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Colombia vs. Portugal odds
Colombia | +320 |
Tie | +260 |
Portgual | -118 |
Colombia vs. Portugal player props
Anytime goalscorer
Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) | +110 |
Goncalo Ramos (Portugal) | +163 |
Joao Felix (Portugal) | +225 |
Cucho Hernandez (Colombia) | +300 |
Luis Suarez (Colombia) | +333 |
Luis Diaz (Colombia) | +333 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
