In more than 75 years of playoff basketball, a one-seed has fallen in the first round just six times.
Upsets are hard to come by in the NBA Playoffs.
The series format makes it unlikely for an underdog to beat its opponent four times in seven games. Single-elimination setups like the NCAAB Championship and the NBA Play-In Tournament are much more upset-friendly.
However, the NBA Playoffs have seen some shockers over the years, including six 8-seed over 1-seed first round triumphs.
Every #8 over #1 in playoff history
| Year | #8 seed | #1 seed | Series score |
| 1994 | Denver Nuggets | Seattle SuperSonics | 3-2 |
| 1999 | New York Knicks | Miami Heat | 3-2 |
| 2007 | Golden State Warriors | Dallas Mavericks | 4-2 |
| 2011 | Memphis Grizzlies | San Antonio Spurs | 4-2 |
| 2012 | Philadelphia 76ers | Chicago Bulls | 4-2 |
| 2023 | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | 4-1 |
Let's take a deeper look at some of the above instances, as well as some other notable first round upsets.
Heat shock top-seeded Bucks
It's less than two weeks into the 2023 NBA Playoffs and we've already seen one of the biggest upsets of all-time.
The 8-seed Miami Heat wrapped up a 4-1 series victory over the 1-seed Milwaukee Bucks behind one of the greatest single-series showings of all time from Jimmy Butler.
Butler averaged 37.6 PPG in the series, including a 56-point outburst in Game 4, and hit the game-tying shot in Game 5 with 0.5 seconds remaining. In a series that included 'Greek Freak' Giannis Antetokounmpo, Butler was far and away the most dominant force on the court.
The Bucks were +250 favorites to win the title ahead of the playoffs, and a -1200 favorite to win the series against Miami. The Heat were +750 to win the series after earning a playoff berth via the Play-In Tournament.
Golden State dismantles Dallas in 2007
The Golden State Warriors are one of the powerhouses in the NBA right now with four titles in the last eight years, but back in 2007 that wasn’t the case.
The Dubs only managed to secure the 8-seed after a 16-5 stretch to finish the season, and a first round matchup with the Dallas Mavericks looked an impossible task.
The Mavs lost in the finals the previous year and looked poised to go one better and claim what would have been a first championship in franchise history at that point.
Dallas was the clear favorite and went into the postseason having won a league-high 67 games.
The Warriors pulled off an upset with a win in Dallas in Game 1, but the Mavs restored parity before Games 3 and 4 in Oakland.
The Golden State fans were out in full force after a 13-year absence from playoff basketball. Baron Davis starred for the Warriors, who held the offensive juggernaut Mavs to a lowly 38.8 FG% in Game 4, then 35.3 FG% in the series-clinching Game 6. Dirk Nowitzki and company were aiming to get back to the finals, but instead were stunned in the opening round and sent home early.
The Dubs managed to finish the series off in front of their own fans in Game 6 to complete arguably the biggest first round shock in NBA history, before going on to lose to Utah in the next round.
Rockets take out Magic and Kareem in '81
The Los Angeles Lakers were the defending champions in 1981 and boasted superstars Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, two of the greatest players of all time, on their roster.
On paper, this team looked unbeatable, but the Houston Rockets proved they could be bested in a huge first round upset.
The first round was contested over a best-of-three series in the 1980-81 season and the Rockets won 2-1, thanks largely to the herculean efforts of Moses Malone and a supporting cast of Calvin Murphy and Rudy Tomjanovich.
There were a few mitigating circumstances for the Lakers. Magic had spent much of the season injured and was unable to make a huge impact.
The fallout from this series did see coach Paul Westhead fired the following season and Pat Riley took over, who went on to win the first of his four championships with the Lakers in 1982.
Houston start title defense in style in 1995
It seems strange to have Houston’s win over the Utah Jazz in 1995 as one of the biggest first round upsets as they were the defending champions, but they hadn’t particularly played as if they were the holders during the regular season.
The Jazz lost to the Rockets 4-1 in the Conference Finals the previous season but looked poised to take some revenge after winning 60 games in the 1994/95 regular season.
Utah had a pair of All-NBA 1st team members in John Stockton and Karl Malone, while Houston had finished up with a 47-35 overall record and lost their last three regular season meetings with the Jazz.
It was an incredibly close series that the Rockets edged 3-2 – winning Game 5 in Salt Lake City – before going on to repeat as champions.
Duncan and Spurs dumped out by Memphis in 2011
In 2011, the San Antonio Spurs became just the fifth one-seed in playoff history to lose to an eight-seed as they were beaten in six games by the Memphis Grizzlies.
San Antonio had championship pedigree, powered by future Hall of Famers Tim Duncan and Tony Parker and one of the greatest coaches of all time in Gregg Popovich, but they couldn’t cope with Memphis' pair Zach Randolph or Marc Gasol over six games. The duo combined to record six double-doubles in the series.
The physicality and size of that Memphis team made the difference vs. the Spurs, and they nearly pulled off another shock in the next round but lost out in seven games to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
