The Cincinnati Open will have a new Masters 1000 champion on Sunday as Frances Tiafoe and Arthur Fils meet in a final that will mark the biggest title of either man's career.
Neither player has previously won at this level and Tiafoe will be hoping to go one better than in 2024, when he lost to Jannik Sinner in the Cincinnati final.
The American is bidding to become the first home winner of the tournament since Andy Roddick in 2006 and Tiafoe delighted the Cincinnati crowd with a 7-5 6-3 semifinal victory over compatriot Brandon Nakashima.
Tiafoe was tested in the opening set, saving three set points before taking his opportunity to break late on, but he was much more comfortable in the second as he secured his place in another final on US soil.
Fils has also impressed on his way through the draw and the 22-year-old needed just one hour and eight minutes to see off seventh seed Flavio Cobolli 6-3 6-4 in Saturday's other semifinal.
The Frenchman had previously fallen at the semifinal stage in Miami and Madrid this year, but he finally broke through and will now look to cap a remarkable week with the biggest victory of his career, as he pushes for a spot in the top ten rankings for the first time.
Arthur Fils vs. Frances Tiafoe betting picks and predictions
Arthur Fils and over 21.5 games (+160)
Fils has looked increasingly impressive as the week has gone on and his exceptional serving could prove the difference when he takes on home favorite Frances Tiafoe in Sunday's Cincinnati Open final.
The Frenchman has won 50 of his 53 service games through five matches, while his numbers behind both first and second serves have improved significantly in Ohio.
He was broken just once by Cobolli in the semifinals and should have the confidence to withstand the pressure of facing Tiafoe in front of a partisan crowd.
Fils also holds a head-to-head advantage, having beaten the American in their only previous meeting. That victory was in a tightly fought match and the statistics suggest this could be another close contest.
Tiafoe has shown plenty of resilience on his way to the final and his win over Brandon Nakashima demonstrated his ability to raise his game in the biggest moments.
The American is likely to make Fils work for the title and should be capable of keeping the match competitive.
However, Fils has looked the more dominant player this week and his superior serving gives him the edge.
Expect Tiafoe to keep the score ticking over, but Fils should have enough quality to secure his biggest title.
Total Sets - 3 (+137)
The previous meeting between these two suggests this Cincinnati final could be a battle that goes the distance, with Fils having edged Tiafoe in three sets when they met in Miami last year.
That match lasted almost three hours, underlining how closely matched the pair can be, with Tiafoe's home support likely to spur him on.
Fils has been the more dominant player throughout this week, but Tiafoe has thrived in Cincinnati before and will be desperate to make the most of another final on home soil.
With so much at stake and neither man having previously won a Masters 1000 title, a decisive third set looks like a strong possibility.
Total match aces - over 16.5 (-120)
Fils has been serving superbly throughout his run to the Cincinnati final and his power from the line makes over 16.5 match aces an appealing play.
The Frenchman has already fired 21 aces in five matches and served six against Cobolli in his straight-sets semifinal victory, while his dominant work behind the first and second serve has been a key factor in his run to the final.
Tiafoe is also capable of producing plenty of free points with his serve and his previous meeting with Fils was a lengthy three-set battle featuring 32 aces.
With this final likely to be another competitive contest, both players should have enough opportunities to help push the combined tally beyond the line.
Arthur Fils vs. Frances Tiafoe odds
Arthur Fils | -225 |
Frances Tiafoe | +175 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
