It's all or nothing for Novak Djokovic at the Paris Masters as the Serbian great aims to secure his spot at the season-ending ATP Finals.
Djokovic has an opportunity to climb above Roger Federer with a record 19th appearance at the ATP Finals, but he has a fight on his hands to qualify for the Turin showpiece.
As Jannik Sinner is currently sidelined due to injury and will not take part, Rafael Jodar holds the final qualifying spot in ninth place and Djokovic is over 300 points adrift of the Spaniard in the Race to Turin leaderboard.
The 24-time Grand Slam champion has missed the previous two editions of the ATP Finals with injury, but the last time he failed to qualify for the tournament on merit - albeit during an injury-affected season - was in 2017.
Djokovic knows only a deep run at the Paris Masters, the final Masters 1000 event of the campaign, will suffice if he's to have any chance of leapfrogging Jodar and Alex de Minaur for the final qualifying berth.
The Paris Masters has been a happy hunting ground for the 39-year-old in the past with seven titles, which is an extraordinary feat when you consider the only other multiple winner of the tournament in this century was Murat Safin, who prevailed three times in 2000, 2002 and 2004.
So what are the permutations for Djokovic to secure a spot in this month's ATP Finals? We've ran through the leaderboard and the numbers.
What result does Djokovic need at the Paris Masters to qualify for the ATP Finals?
The equation itself is pretty simple: Djokovic needs to outscore Jodar and De Minaur, whilst ensuring Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul don't outscore him.
Ahead of his first round match at the Paris Masters against Valentin Vacherot, Djokovic trails Jodar by 334 points and De Minaur by 270 points.
As the Paris Masters is an ATP Masters 1000 event, 1000 ranking points is on offer to the winner of the tournament. So if Djokovic was to claim an eighth title in the French capital's indoor hard-court event, that would be enough to seal his spot in the ATP Finals, irrespective of how his rivals fare.
A runner-up spot rewards you with 650 points, which would secure Djokovic's ATP Finals berth providing both Jodar and De Minaur fail to advance beyond the quarter-finals, and if neither Fritz nor Paul win the tournament. If one of Jodar or De Minaur reach the semi-finals, Djokovic could still climb into the top nine providing Frances Tiafoe is eliminated in the second round.
A run to the semi-finals might be enough for Djokovic to scrape into the top nine, but that would require both Jodar and De Minaur being eliminated in the second round of the Paris Masters. To reference the American duo once more, neither Fritz nor Paul can reach the final.
Anything less than reaching the semi-finals will bring Djokovic's campaign to a premature end.
Novak Djokovic ATP Finals permutations
Djokovic qualifies for ATP Finals: | |
| |
| Jodar/De Minaur no better than QF |
| Jodar/De Minaur no better than R2 |
Current Race to Turin leaderboard
Frances Tiafoe - 3,390
Rafael Jodar - 3,234
Alex de Minaur - 3,170
Novak Djokovic - 2,900
Taylor Fritz - 2,860
Tommy Paul - 2,735
