The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing concludes with the Valspar Championship from the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook.
Viktor Hovland beat Justin Thomas by one shot in last year's event. winning his seventh PGA Tour event despite his publicly known battles with his swing at the time.
Typical for the Florida Swing, the Valspar is another stiff test, with the winning score in the last three years -11, -12 and -10, with weather often playing a part.
Although not a particularly long course, Innisbrook has narrow fairways and the course is lengthened by players often having to leave driver in the bag. Players often choose to lay back off the tee on 2, 3, 12 and 16 owing to water danger, putting a premium on driving accuracy. From there, more than half of all approach shots over the week will likely come from 150-200 and 250+ yards. As such, it's no surprise to see that of the last seven winners, Hovland, Sam Burns and Paul Casey have been victorious five times.
Innisbrook is very much a second shot course, and of the last nine winners, their average rank for SG: APP for the week was fifth as per Golf Betting System.
While Innisbrook is extremely challenging off the tee and demanding on approach, the inevitable missed greens don't cause too much of a headache for players, and when finding the putting surface, players are presented with Bermudagrass greens, overseeded with Poa trivialis at this time of year, similar to the complexes seen at TPC Scottsdale and TPC Sawgrass.
Take a look at our Power Rankings for this week's Valspar Championship.
5 - Jacob Bridgeman
Over the last few weeks, there’s a strong argument to be made that Jacob Bridgeman has been the best player in the world.
This time a year ago, Bridgeman was little more than a middling PGA Tour player. An impressive T2 at the Cognizant Classic, Bridgeman backed that up with a T15 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and would go on to finish solo-third at the Valspar.
Bridgeman is a much better player now than he was then. His driving is straighter and longer, his iron play is sharper, and his putting so far this season has been outstanding.
This season, the 26-year-old has finished T4-T13-T18-T8-1-T18-T5 and several of these finishes have come at big events.
It’s fair to ask how sustainable Bridgeman’s putting streak is which is carrying much of his good form, but while that flat stick stays hot, we’ll likely continue to see Bridgeman at the top of leaderboards.
4 - Justin Thomas
While just about everyone can cry about the what-ifs after a week at Sawgrass, Justin Thomas genuinely can. One loose drive on the sixth on Saturday led to a triple-bogey seven that killed Thomas’s chances of a second Players crown after a solid start.
We’re still learning what Thomas is at the moment after only making his first appearance of the season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, in which back-to-back 78s saw him finish dead last. The effort at TPC Sawgrass was a major improvement, finishing T8, and Thomas now goes to Innisbrook where his finishes read T10-T18-MC-T13-T3-T10-T64-2.
Despite Innisbrook limiting what has always been Thomas’s biggest weapon, it’s a venue where he’s had lots of good showings.
Thomas’s form dipped significantly in the second half of last season, but if he’s to recapture it anywhere, Innisbrook might just be the place.
3 - Viktor Hovland
This time last year, Viktor Hovland was bemoaning his swing, having made what appeared to be a series of misguided changes. Coming into the Valspar on the back of three straight missed cuts, Hovland rocked up at Innisbrook and held off Justin Thomas to win by a shot.
Hovland’s biggest issue at present is that he’s now driving the ball much shorter than he has previously, but that won’t be overly punished at the Copperhead Course, where players are often clubbing down off the tee anyway.
Hovland finished a decent T13 at the Players last week, albeit while posting a 74 on Sunday, but the most surprising thing is that it came via a remarkable performance around the greens, with the Norwegian by far and away the best player in terms of SG: ARG.
Considering his struggles with driver at the moment, Innisbrook looks like an ideal venue for Hovland to get himself back into contention.
2 - Matt Fitzpatrick
After a water-ball bogey on 18 on Thursday and a three-putt double bogey on Saturday, Matt Fitzpatrick would have been delighted to have found himself in contention on Sunday.
Trouble lurks all over TPC Sawgrass, but no more so than throughout the final three holes, which Fitzpatrick played one-over-par, losing the Players by one shot to Cameron Young, missing an eight-footer to force a play-off.
But the Englishman was excellent in all aspects throughout the week, and only really the volatility of Sawgrass denied him the win.
After a battling week at Bay Hill, Fitzpatrick was back to his best last week, and returns to Innisbrook looking to put right some mixed results.
His last two appearances in 2022 and 2023 produced finishes of T5 and MC, but the missed cut came on the back of a poor run of form.
Now playing better than he was this time two years ago, Fitzpatrick will be hopeful of another good showing this week.
1 - Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele is no worse than T12 in his three previous outings at Innisbrook, with his last appearance coming on the back of a poor run of form following his early-season rib injury.
Schauffele finished the event miles clear of the pack in terms of SG:APP in what was the start of something of a resurgence for the two-time major winner.
Schauffele was well placed at TPC Sawgrass last week, two off the lead going into the weekend before a really underwhelming third round, bouncing back well on Sunday to close with three birdies in his final four holes.
We’re starting to see the Schauffele of old again, and he may find himself back in the winners’ circle this week.
