Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz has brushed off any worries about his fitness in reaching the last-16 at the US Open despite a four-month layoff.
The Spaniard now faces home hope Tommy Paul, as the American attempts to break some glass ceilings.
Paul has never defeated a top-five ranked player at a Grand Slam and has never progressed beyond the last-16 in New York in three previous attempts.
Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz Tips Summary
Best Bet – Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1 @ 9/4
Alternative Bet – Match Aces Under 11.5 @ 5/6
Bet Builder – Carlos Alcaraz to win the first set 7-5 or 7-6, Tommy Paul Most Aces & Carlos Alcaraz Under 4.5 Double Faults @ 12/1
Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Best Bet: Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1 @ 9/4
Absent since April, defending US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz is gradually going through the gears in New York on his return to action.
The Spaniard has improved round by round and his three-set win over Wu Yibing was a good workout as some solid returning from the Chinese made Alcaraz work for his 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 victory.
Paul meanwhile had to go five sets to avenge last year's US Open exit to Alexander Bublik, overcoming a tie-break loss in the third to take sets four and five 6-1, 6-3.
He has now spent 90 minutes more than Alcaraz on court in their journey to this stage. Paul is 0-2 in US Open last-16 matches and yet to defeat a top-five ranked player in a Grand Slam. Those records may extend, but the athletic American can at least take a set here.
Alternative Bet: Match Aces Under 11.5 @ 5/6
This is the fourth Grand Slam meeting between Paul and Alcaraz and it completes their set after clashing at Wimbledon, in Paris and Melbourne previously.
Their 2024 All-England Club clash produced nine aces, while it was six in Paris in 2025 and nine at the Australian Open in January in the last-16.
Paul hit double figures in a five-setter against Bublik in round two but may not reach that tally now and Alcaraz has sent down just 11 aces in three wins thus far.
Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz Bet Builder Tip
Carlos Alcaraz to win the first set 7-5 or 7-6
Tommy Paul Most Aces
Carlos Alcaraz Under 4.5 Double Faults
Pays 12/1
The opening set in Melbourne in January went to Alcaraz in a tie-break as he eventually recovered from dropping his opening service game.
The Spaniard had outclassed Paul on the clay at the French Open last year but their first Grand Slam clash at Wimbledon in 2024 went 7-5 to Paul in the first set. The American will need a good start if he is to gain a foothold but Alcaraz can claim a close first set.
Paul lost in straight sets in Melbourne in January but won the ace-count 7-2, he can claim that mini-battle again but unforced errors from the defending champ should be infrequent on his own serve.
He didn't serve a single double fault in the Australian Open meeting and has offered only two in three major meetings previously against Paul. He has served four in the previous two rounds and is expected not to go beyond that now.
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Key Match Stats
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6-2 and has won all three previous meetings at Grand Slams
This is a first US Open meeting, with Alcaraz winning in three sets at the 2026 Australian Open and the 2025 French Open as well as in four sets at Wimbledon in 2024
Paul has never made it beyond the last-16 in New York, losing both previous attempts at this stage
Alcaraz has won all four US Open last-16 matches he has contested, winning the title at Flushing Meadows in 2022 and 2025. The Spaniard is on a 17-match Grand Slam winning streak
Paul, ranked 21st in the world, has never defeated a top-five ranked player at a Grand Slam
Alcaraz has spent 7 hours 22 minutes on court in three wins, Paul has played 8 hours and 58 minutes already
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
