Francisco Cerundolo will try to complete a remarkable week at Queen’s Club when he faces Tommy Paul in Sunday’s final at Andy Murray Arena.
The Argentinian survived three‑set battles against lucky loser Aleksandar Kovacevic, wildcard Arthur Fery and Brandon Nakashima, who had knocked out top seed Alex De Minaur, to reach the championship match.
In the semi-finals Cerundolo came from a set and a break down to beat Nakashima and reach his first tour final above ATP 250.
He has won four of his previous seven at that lower level, including a three-set victory over Paul on a blustery Sunday at Eastbourne in 2023.
The American has powered through the bottom half of draw with clinical serving and clean hitting.
One of the most consistent grass‑court performers on tour over the past three years, Paul reached his second Queen's final in three seasons by taking out Ugo Humbert in straight sets on Saturday.
Cerundolo leads 5–2 overall against Paul and has won two of their three meetings on grass, but the American's form this week suggests he is ready to push back.
Francisco Cerundolo v Tommy Paul Tips Summary
Best Bet - Tommy Paul to win & over 22.5 games @ 15/8
Alternative Bet - First set: Over 10.5 games @ 8/11
Bet Builder - Tommy Paul to win 2-1, Tommy Paul 5+ aces & Francisco Cerundolo over 1.5 breaks of serve @ 11/2
Francisco Cerundolo v Tommy Paul Prediction
Best Bet: Paul to win & over 22.5 games @ 15/8
Paul has all the weapons to dominate on grass and it remains his best surface, but he has somehow been unable to impose himself on Cerundolo in the past.
He won a hard-fought first-round match against the Argentinian at Eastbourne in 2022 in a decider and then lost 6-7 6-4 4-6 to his rival at Queen's Club a year later.
They met a fortnight later in the Eastbourne final, with Cerundolo again upsetting his higher-ranked American opponent 6-4 in the third.
The wind certainly played a part on that occasion, potentially affecting Paul's higher ball toss and serving rhythm more than Cerundolo.
The No.8 seed enters this final with a clearer gameplan and a more stable grass‑court game.
His first serve has been a major weapon all week, with 75% or more first‑serve points won in all four matches and he has kept his double‑fault tally to just seven across the entire tournament.
Cerundolo has been forced to come from behind multiple times to get this far and his eight double faults and 48.7% first-serve ratio in the semi-final suggest he is battling himself as much as his opponents.
The No.7 seed has won the last four meetings, but many of those came on clay or slow hard courts - conditions that favour his heavy topspin and counterpunching.
On grass, Paul's flatter, more aggressive ball‑striking becomes significantly more effective.
History between these two and Cerundolo's path to the final both point to this being a long final, probably decided in a third set.
But Paul's greater experience of these occasions, having handled this exact moment well when he beat Lorenzo Musetti 6-1 7-6 in the final two years ago, indicates that he should win.
Alternative Bet: First set: Over 9.5 games @ 8/11
Both players have been involved in tight first sets this week, with two of Paul's four going over 9.5 games and Cerundolo's last two going all the way to tie-breaks.
Their head‑to‑head also supports a long opener with three of their seven previous meetings having featured a first‑set tiebreak.
All three of their prior clashes on grass have featured at least 10 games and a 7‑5 or 7‑6 opening set feels highly plausible again here.
Francisco Cerundolo v Tommy Paul Bet Builder Tips
Tommy Paul to win 2-1
Tommy Paul 5+ aces
Francisco Cerundolo over 1.5 breaks of serve
Pays 11/2
Paul is averaging more than eight aces per match at Queen's Club this week and has not played more than two sets in any of those, whereas this final has the potential for a decider.
He should be able to serve five or more aces, but Cerundolo's return form also suggest he can create some break-point chances.
The Argentinian has broken serve 20 times in the tournament and has shown he can pressure Paul's second serve in past meetings.
Given their rivalry history with five of their seven matches having gone to a deciding set, backing over 2.5 sets is a logical addition.
And taking Paul to win 2-1 looks a worthwhile addition to the Bet Builder based on his superior grass game and current form.
Key Match Stats
Cerundolo leads the head‑to‑head 5–2 with a 2-1 advantage in grass-court matches
Paul has not dropped a set and won 75%+ of first‑serve points in all four matches
Cerundolo has hit 23 aces at Queen’s this year, Paul has struck 33
Paul has committed only seven double faults in the tournament
Cerundolo has won five of his last six matches against Paul, including two on grass
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
