Carlos Alcaraz lost out to Jannik Sinner in the decider at the 2025 ATP finals, but he is the class act in the field at the Inalpi Arena in Turin and Dan Childs expects him to get his hands on the trophy.
Sinner won the event in 2025 and 2026, but is unable to defend the crown due to a knee injury which has kept him off the court since July.
And the Italian’s fitness issues mean there are only two former ATP finals champions - 2020 victor Daniil Medvedev and two-time winner Alexander Zverev - in the eight strong field.
The tournament sees the players split into two round-robin groups of four, with the top two from each section advancing to the semi-finals, and Zverev, the tournament’s top seed is housed in the John McEnroe Group alongside 2026 US Open runner-up Ben Shelton, plus France’s Arthur Fils and Spanish contender Rafael Jodar.
The Ivan Lendl Group features Alcaraz alongside the vastly experienced Medvedev, plus 2026 French Open runner-up Flavio Cobolli and American Frances Tiafoe.
ATP Finals Tips Summary
Best Bet - Carlos Alcaraz to win ATP Finals @ 4/5
Alternative Bet - Daniil Medvedev to win ATP Finals (each-way) @ 12/1
ATP Finals Prediction
Best Bet: Carlos Alcaraz to win ATP Finals @ 4/5
Alcaraz has experienced a bumpy ride in the 2026 season, but he has looked back to his best in recent weeks and can tick another box in his career by winning the ATP finals for the first time.
The season started in sensational fashion for Alcaraz as he defeated Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final and, as a result, completed the full set of Grand Slam titles at the tender age of 22.
But Alcaraz had to dig incredibly deep for his Melbourne victory which included a gruelling five-set semi-final triumph over Alexander Zverev in a match which lasted five hours and 27 minutes.
That effort seemed to take a toll on Alcaraz, who subsequently struggled with injuries and was unable to take part at the French Open or Wimbledon.
However, Alcaraz returned from a four-month break with a run to the US Open quarter-finals, and he has stepped things up more recently, winning titles in Tokyo and Vienna, before an impressive triumph at the Paris Masters, where he overcame Ben Shelton 7-6 7-5 in the final.
Despite his difficult year, Alcaraz is seeded second for the ATP finals and has nothing to fear, given his head-to-head supremacy over every other player in the competition.
Alcaraz has lost six of 13 matches against Zverev, but he has been the tour’s outstanding player in recent weeks and will be tough to stop.
Alternative Bet: Daniil Medvedev to win ATP finals (each-way) @ 12/1
There is a youthful feel to the tournament with five players aged 24 or below, but 30-year-old Daniil Medvedev possesses a wealth of experience and still has the game to make a major impact.
Medvedev has won four titles over the course of the year but will probably be disappointed with his performances at the biggest events.
However, he is a two-time finalist at the ATP Tour finals and has won 12 of 23 matches at the event.
The Russian will cross paths with Alcaraz in the Ivan Lendl Group and will not be overawed having won three of the 10 meetings between the players.
And Medvedev will have no qualms about his other scheduled opponents, given his winning record against Flavio Cobolli (2-1) and Frances Tiafoe (6-2).
Medvedev could come across Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals, but he has won 14 of 22 meetings against the German and, with that in mind, he merits an each-way interest at 12/1.
Key Tournament Stats
- Alcaraz has lost only one of his last 17 matches
- Zverev has won 19 of his last 24 matches
- Zverev has won all of his six matches against Shelton
- Fils has been beaten in four of his last eight outings
- Shelton has lost six of his last 12 matches
- Jodar has lost three of his last five matches
- Cobolli has lost six of his last nine matches
- Tiafoe has lost five of his last seven matches
- Tiafoe has won four of his five matches against Cobolli
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
