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How Southampton went from 300/1 Championship outsiders to 9/2 automatic promotion hopefuls

It never ceases to amaze how quickly a team's outlook can change in football, and in the space of three months Southampton have gone from hopelessness to hopefulness as they close in on the Championship top two.

The Saints extended their winning run in the Championship to six games after defeating Blackburn Rovers 3-0 and are now trading at 9/2 for a Top Two finish, a significant shift from their 300/1 quote just over a month ago.

bet365’s Steve Freeth commented: “There was optimism for a swift return to the Premier League under new boss Will Still, with the Saints priced at 11/4 for an automatic promotion spot in pre-season.

“Two late goals against Wrexham on the opening weekend saw their odds shorten to 5/2, but it didn’t get better than that for the former Lens manager with his Southampton career going up in smoke before Guy Fawkes night.

Southampton drifted out to 20/1 by the time Tonda Eckert moved up to take over as interim coach and after some fine results they were into 7/1 by Christmas Day. However, after some inconsistent form they were out to 300/1 after requiring an injury-time equaliser against struggling West Brom at the Hawthorns in mid-March.

“Since then, they have secured six successive Championship victories, shortening into 200/1 after a win at leaders Coventry City and then collapsing into 20/1 after hammering Wrexham, along with an FA Cup quarter-final win over Arsenal.

“The St Mary’s side now head into the final four games of the campaign as 9/2 shots to secure one of the top-two spots in what has been a remarkable turnaround under the 33-year-old German."

Championship

Following a successful interim spell after the sacking of Still, Eckert was appointed Southampton's head coach on a permanent basis at the start of December but within six weeks, the German tactician found himself under immense pressure.

Even the idea of the Saints embarking on a play-off push seemed implausible when a 2-1 defeat to Hull City on 17th January extended their winless league run to seven matches.

Toxicity was rife at St Mary's. Disgruntled fans vented their anger at the club's owners, Sports Republic, and chants of "you're not fit to wear the shirt" were directed at the players. When Eckert decided to withdraw Tom Fellows in the second half against the Tigers, chants of "you don't know what you're doing" echoed around the stadium.

Reflecting on the loss to Hull, an exasperated Eckert said: "We need to start winning football games. We have a chance to do this on Wednesday [against Sheffield United] and we'll invest everything to do that.

I have all of the faith there is that we will show a reaction. I live and breathe for this football club and I do everything 24/7 to bring it back on the road and that will continue.

On that night, Southampton were 16 points adrift of Middlesbrough in second. What's happened since is quite simply staggering, even if Southampton were criminally underachieving for the majority of the campaign.

Saints supporters may not have envisioned it at the time, but a 1-0 win over Sheffield United was critical in getting Southampton back on track and marked the start of an 18-game unbeaten run in all competitions.

A score draw against south coast rivals Portsmouth did little to lift the mood, but victory away at Stoke City indicated a turning tide. On deadline day, Southampton bid farewell to Adam Armstrong, who completed a permanent move to Wolves, and welcomed the loan signing of Cyle Larin from RCD Mallorca.

The Canadian's impact was instantaneous, netting the only goal of the game in a 1-0 over Watford on his debut. Not only has Larin added a further four league goals to his account, strengthening his claims of a spot in Jesse Marsch's World Cup squad this summer, but the 30-year-old striker has offered Southampton a different dynamic with his imposing, powerful frame.

While Larin has built up match fitness, Ross Stewart has enjoyed an injury-free run to spear Southampton's attack when the Canadian is on the bench, and the Scotsman has benefited from the abundance of creativity behind him in the shape of Finn Azaz, Leo Scienza, Tom Fellow and Kuryu Matsuki.

In defence, continuity has contributed to an improved defensive output. Eckert has been able to name the same back five of Daniel Peretz, James Bree, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Jack Stephens and Ryan Manning for the last 10 consecutive league fixtures.

Since being mauled by the Tigers in mid-January, no Championship side has conceded fewer than Southampton's 10. At St Mary's they've been impenetrable, conceding just two goals in their last eight matches.

Southampton Odds infographic

Having built solid defensive foundations, Southampton's creative players have been awarded licence to be inventive.

A 4-3 comeback victory against Leicester City was a pivotal moment in the season. Trailing 3-0 after 29 minutes at the King Power Stadium, Eckert tried to rally his team at the half-time interval. Tactics and structure went out the window; he and his players wanted to give it a proper go. Once Stewart netted just after the hour mark, the Saints capitalised on Leicester's brittle confidence to complete an astonishing comeback.

The results since that momentous victory speak for themselves.

Denied all three points against Charlton, Southampton were emphatic 5-0 winners over Queens Park Rangers before rounding off February with a 3-1 win over Sheffield Wednesday.

Defeating Fulham in the FA Cup, Eckert's outfit were left frustrated with a 1-1 draw against struggling West Brom at The Hawthorns, but they returned to winning ways in glorious fashion by toppling leaders Coventry City. Southampton headed into the international break with wins against Norwich City and Oxford United to climb into the Championship top six.

The Saints returned from their two-week hiatus with a free hit against Premier League leaders Arsenal in the FA Cup quarter-finals. In what was expected to be a routine triumph for Mikel Arteta's men, Southampton stunned their opponents as goals from Stewart and Shea Charles sealed their passage to a semi-final showdown with Manchester City.

They could be forgiven for suffering an FA Cup hangover, but Southampton strutted into the Racecourse Ground with air of invincibility as they faced Wrexham in a crucial fixture in the play-off race.

Southampton ran riot in north Wales, thrashing Phil Parkinson's men 5-1. The win opened up a two-point advantage over Wrexham to go with their game in hand and enhanced their vastly superior goal difference.

Victories against Derby County and Blackburn Rovers have left many to wonder if this Southampton steam train will eventually grind to a halt. Referencing a famous Donald Trump line from the 2016 United States presidential campaign, it's too much winning and the Championship can't take it anymore.

Southampton now trail Ipswich Town in second by three points, albeit having played a game more than the Tractor Boys. However, if the Hampshire club can sustain their winning momentum in their fixtures against Swansea City and Bristol City, we're set for a titanic showdown St Mary's between the Saints and Ipswich in their penultimate match of the season which will have a major impact on the automatic promotion picture.

Conquer Kieran McKenna's outfit, and there's every chance Southampton will head into their final fixture away at Preston North End with an opportunity to seal a top two finish.

Such a statement would have seemed unimaginable six weeks ago.

All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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