Argentina have long held the upper hand over Italy on the international stage and, although both teams have struggled to put together decent results in the Nations Championship, Los Pumas look better placed to step up a gear.
The Azzurri are missing some key players and that seems to have hampered their attack in particular, so this looks set to be a nervy, close-fought clash and Argentina can come out on top in Genoa.
Italy v Argentina Tips Summary
Best Bet - Under 56.5 @ 10/11
Alternative bet - Argentina to win by one to 12 points @ 11/5
Bet Builder - Argentina-Argentina Double Result, Total points 40-49, Yellow card in the match - Yes @ 29/4
Italy v Argentina Prediction
Best Bet: Under 56.5 points @ 10/11
Italy enjoyed a strong Six Nations campaign with victories over Scotland and England, but any hopes of building on that success in the Nations Championship were soon dashed.
Three of the Azzurri's first four fixtures were against Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, but they opened with a defeat to second-tier Japan.
They have the poorest attack in the tournament with just 44 points and six tries scored and they have key players missing for Saturday's showdown.
Los Pumas haven't been much better and, although they do at least have one win under their belts in the tournament - at home to Wales in July - they were poor in last week’s defeat to Ireland in Dublin and also picked up injuries in that match.
Captain Julian Montoya is the biggest out for Los Pumas after picking up a head injury, while fellow forward Marcos Kremer and full-back Juan Cruz Mallia are also sidelined.
Argentina are sure to miss Montoya's leadership as they seek to turn things around from an error-strewn and undisciplined performance in Dublin.
Five lost line-outs, 14 penalties conceded, 30 missed tackles - the stats were pretty damning for Argentina, and a coaching team that now includes Shaun Edwards looking after defence is sure to have spent the past few days cracking down on any weak links in their play.
That may well result in a show of limited ambition and, given Italy's own absentees and their lack of cutting edge, we look to be in for a tight contest.
Despite finishing fourth in the Six Nations with two wins, Italy were still the lowest scorers with nine tries - two fewer than bottom side Wales and 12 fewer than England, who also finished below them.
Alternative Bet: Argentina to win by one to 12 points @ 11/5
This is a fixture that has belonged to Argentina, who have won the last nine meetings between the two teams.
They were poor against Ireland last week but look better placed to build positively on that having been in action throughout the summer
There was plenty wrong with their showing last week against Ireland, but their shortcomings in that match look fixable, while Italy look to be struggling without some injured key players, notably captain Michele Lamaro and centre Tommaso Menoncello.
Italy v Argentina Bet Builder Tip
Argentina/Argentina Double Result
Total points 40-49
Yellow card in the match - Yes
Pays 29/4
Argentina are strong favourites for this clash and their attacking game looks in a better place than that of Italy. They scored the first try against Ireland last week and can make the running in this clash.
Los Pumas were 50-18 winners the last time these teams met two years ago, but the previous six autumn head-to-heads in Italy have averaged just over 40 points.
And in a hard-fought clash between two teams desperate to improve their poor record, it would be no surprise to see players from either side cross the line and pick up a card.
Two Argentina players and one from Italy were sin-binned in last week's Round 4 matches.
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Key Match Stats
Argentina have won their last nine Test matches against Italy, a run that goes back to 2008
Six of the last ten meetings have been decided by no more than eight points
Italy have scored just 44 points and six tries in their four Nations Championship matches, the lowest tally of all ten teams
Argentina have won just one of seven matches this year
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
