Rotherham are looking for a second home win of the season when playing host to Gillingham on Saturday.
The Millers have won one of their last six League Two games -- a 1-0 victory over struggling Northampton -- and are currently 13th in the table, two points behind Gillingham, who've taken 10 points from their last five games, losing just one of their last eight.
Speaking on the Football Betting Club podcast, Gavin Horsfall explains why he likes a half-time/full time bet at a big price.
Rotherham v Gillingham Prediction & Tips
Best Bet: Gillingham/Rotherham half-time/full time @ 22/1
Gavin said: "Like a lot of people, I think—and I just get this sense from what you hear and see—if you generate your own ratings, which I do, Rotherham have been an anomaly.
"Over the last few weeks, they've been the team to be on. We backed them a couple of weeks ago when they gave away a silly penalty with 10 minutes to go, having been 3-2 up at Salford after being 2-0 down. It's an awful place to be as a punter because the market keeps reeling you in with Rotherham. They've gone off at over 2/1 on four occasions, and 4/1 plus in three of their four home games. In fact, they've only gone off favourite once, and that was in the 1-1 draw at home to Crewe.
"You can see why: whatever you put into your ratings—I think Rotherham are fifth in my book—it's a false economy because they're struggling to get over the line in a lot of these games. They're 4/5 at home to Gillingham this weekend.
"I spent far too much time trying to read this game, but here is my take. For Rotherham, it's a run full of strength-of-schedule clues. They've played six of the top eight, and they're building those ratings because they are keeping some good attacking sides at arm's length—they've conceded the third-fewest shots on target. They've only kept one clean sheet all season, and that was against a shot-shy Northampton, but they're still putting in good performances from a defensive metrics perspective.
"However, the defeat at Exeter—which was painful for my pocket last weekend—is perhaps a good example of their current limitations when they're faced with an opportunity to step onto the front foot and take the game to an opponent. This is where they're falling short of expectations. The 3-3 against Salford and the 2-2 at Tranmere are doing some heavy lifting in terms of their ratings, but potentially they're telling us the real story. The xG is absolutely fine, but it comes when the game state dictates that they have to be on the front foot—they were behind after nine minutes against Salford and 16 minutes against Tranmere. When they have to come out of their shell, they can, but they seem to be a side that needs something to aim at; they struggle to get going on their own terms.
"I think Gillingham are an interesting proposition here. It's a really crude way of looking at it, but I'll tell you one of the things I always like: first-half performances away from home. I always think how you perform away from home in the first half in the EFL is a good marker—I'll talk to you about that a bit later perhaps—and Gillingham are the fourth-best side away from home in the first half, which is a big tick in the box. That's a positive sign, funnily enough.
"So, here's the bet: Gillingham/Rotherham half-time/full-time at 22/1."
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