I’m really surprised to look at the promotion odds in League Two, about a sixth of the way through the season, and see three teams odds-on for promotion.
With just six points separating first and 19th in the third-tier table, it's fair to say the division is wide open!
Salford and Rochdale each began with three straight defeats: the former are now league leaders, and the latter are in the top half.
Meanwhile, Crewe are third having only won three games, and Bristol Rovers are fifth despite losing four.
If current PPG returns continued, a mere 81 points would be required to finish in the top three, with 77 to get in the top seven.
As things stand, the league seems to be settling into a rough 2-6-3-7-6 shape: Barnet and Salford looking good with another six prominent promotion contenders, with Cheltenham, Tranmere and Gillingham hoping to lap up any spillage, then a group likely to be in the bottom half, with Rotherham having possibly the highest potential ceiling of the septet.
Then, there’s a mixture of fellow relegated clubs in Port Vale and Northampton who have started slowly, along with out of form Oldham, plus bottom side Crawley, and the likes of Newport and Accrington Stanley may be expected to drop into that mix as well.
Yet, it would be of no surprise if Oldham got their act together under Micky Mellon, or if Port Vale or Northampton put a run together.
On any given day, one of those teams could easily topple a top side, and that’s what makes League Two so unpredictable – which comes back to my point.
You won’t make me place an odds-on promotion bet at this stage of the season, because so much has changed since the start of September and I’m expecting October to bring yet more twists and turns.
For that reason, I see value in going against the grain. Walsall look good, and I’m surprised they’re as big as 9/2. They’ve freshened things up from Mat Sadler’s tenure, and I’ve been really impressed with the quality of coaching on display under Lee Grant.
I’ve also been impressed with their recruitment, particularly of Sven Sprangler, who I think I the best defensive midfielder in the division.
He’s so tenacious, so good at spotting attacks and snuffing them out, but on the ball he keeps things ticking over with short, sharp first-time passes: a massive asset to the Saddlers, and what better foil for an Isaac Moore or a Charlie Crew?
If the price for the Black Country outfit was shorter, I’d question them based on firepower, because I don’t know if Aaron Pressley can spearhead a top three side, and Tai Sodje has had a quieter start than I envisioned.
As it’s 9/2, however, I’m happy to put them forward as an option because they’re so strong in other areas: they’ve conceded the fewest goals in the league with five, as Jed Ward makes a big impact on loan, they play good football and they create chances.
I’ve also been impressed with Chesterfield, who are the slightly shorter price of 11/8.
The Spireites actually have the same number of points as Walsall having played more games, so it may be that our traders put more faith in them because of Paul Cook’s managerial pedigree and experience, versus Grant being slightly more unproven in terms of whether he can deliver at the business end.
That said, I imagine our traders, like me, are also taken by their performances: the north Derbyshire outfit have considerably the best xG For in League Two at 21.1, and could easily have scored another six goals, which may have put them at the summit.
Cook seems to have created an environment in which players who may have lost their way slightly at previous clubs can get back to their best, and that’s certainly been the case with Remeao Hutton, Jack Simpson and Josh Koroma.
Plus, the Spireites were excellent in Saturday lunchtime’s 4-2 victory over Tranmere, and seemed to find their edge in front of goal, with Louie Marsh being particularly influential as a potent second striker, and Dilan Markanday producing moments of delightful individualism.
That midfield pairing of Ryan Stirk and George McEachran gives them some really nice foundations, and now they’ve started taking the chances they’ve been creating all season, I think they could be on for a strong push.
