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Next General Election Odds: Labour huge favourites to win most seats as general election called

Labour are 1/66 to win the most seats after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a general election for 4th July.

UK General Election - Most Seats odds

Most Seats

After a series of terrible results at the recent local elections, speculation increased around when the next general election would be held, with the Conservatives showing no signs of closing the gap to Labour in the polls.

The Prime Minister spent months batting questions away, with suggestions the election would be held in the second half of the year.

The incumbent PM had been under increasing pressure to call an early election amid ever-worsening polling numbers for the Conservative Party that have never recovered following Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget that brought about a swift end to the premiership of Liz Truss.

YouGov polls had support for the Conservatives steadily declining since the summer of 2021, but it wasn't until after the mini-budget of September 2022 that saw their polling numbers plummet, dipping to a nadir of 19% at one point, giving Labour a 37-point lead.

Labour have hovered around the mid-to-high-40s for the last year, but the Conservatives' numbers have continued to decline as Reform UK have enjoyed a steady increase.

It's a near-certainty that Sir Keir Starmer will be the Prime Minister after the next general election, but how many seats Labour will win is still up for debate, with a Labour majority government available at 1/25 on site.

General election odds by constituency

We're offering odds on almost all UK constituencies, from Aldershot to York Outer, on site below.

Politics

Turnout Percentage odds

UK general election turnout by year

Year

Turnout

2019

67.3%

2017

68.8%

2015

66.4%

2010

65.1%

2005

61.4%

2001

59.4%

1997

71.3%

1992

77.7%

Voter turnout has steadily been dropping since the end of World War Two, from around 80% to the low 70s for Tony Blair's landslide win in 1997 to the high 60s in recent years.

Voter apathy could perhaps be blamed for the decline, and the odds suggest it will be a similar case this year. While the Conservatives' popularity is extremely low, Sir Keir Starmer has yet to win hearts and minds in the way Blair managed and even with the much nicer weather we'll get for a July election in comparison to 2019's election, turnout is expected to drop, with under 64.5% 2/5, and over 64.5% 7/4.

Party Vote Share odds

It's worth noting that since the first general election between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in 1922, the Conservatives have never had less than 30.7% of the vote - that being their lowest total from the 1997 election - but the odds suggest they're heading that way this time.

The Conservatives are 7/4 to win 20%-23.99% of the vote share and 10/3 for 24%-27.99% of the vote share.

Labour, meanwhile, have won more than 35.2% just once in the last five elections, when Jeremy Corbyn won 40% of the vote causing a hung parliament in 2017.

They're expected to reach a similar total this time, albeit capitalising on a collapse of the Tory vote. 38%-41.99% is 15/8, while 42%-45.99% is 11/10.

Party Total Seats odds

The Conservatives' worst result since 1922 was 165 seats (improving to just 166 at the next election) in 1997, but they're only Evs to reach the 100 mark this time around, with under 99.5 8/11.

It's odds-on at 1/5 for under 140.5, which would represent the Tories' worst result outside of the Blair years.

Labour, meanwhile, are 3/10 to win over 418.5 seats, which would beat the record set under Blair in 1997.

The Liberal Democrats will pose the biggest threat to the Conservatives in a number of seats in the south west and are 3/10 (was 8/11) for over 38.5 seats, which would represent their best result since the leadership of Nick Clegg when they won 57 seats.

The Scottish National Party enjoyed huge success since 2015 under Nicola Sturgeon's leadership, becoming the UK's third biggest party, winning 59, 39 and 52 seats in the last three elections, but will likely lose around half their seats - with many going back to Labour - and are odds-on at 8/11 for under 21.5 seats.

All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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