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Ligue 1 Preview: Tips, Predictions, Key Contenders & Dark Horses

Ligue 1 kicks off on Friday when Marseille host Strasbourg at the Vélodrome and Racing Post's Jack Ogalbe has provided his picks for the 2026/27 campaign.

Paris Saint-Germain lost the Trophée des Champions but are still the team to beat in France and are looking to win the title for the sixth season in a row.

Behind them, Lens, last season's league runners-up and Coupe de France winners, who beat PSG to the campaign's first silverware last Sunday, are adapting to the loss of head coach Pierre Sage, and others will be hunting them down to be the best of the rest.

However, it is a season of change, with Sage's replacement, Dino Toppmoller, among 12 new head coaches installed, so stability might be the key to success.

Contents table

Ligue 1 Tips and Predictions

Opening Weekend Fixtures

Ligue 1 Favourites

Top Goalscorer Favourites

Data-Led Ligue 1 Predictions & Analytics

Ligue 1 Outright Prediction

Alternative Tip

Dark Horses to Watch

Who Wins Ligue 1?

Ligue 1 Tips and Predictions

Outright Tip: To win Ligue 1 - PSG (1/8)
Alternative Tip: To win Ligue 1 without PSG - Lyon (11/2)
Dark Horse Tip: Jaoquin Panichelli top goalscorer (33/1)

Opening Weekend Fixtures

  • Marseille v Strasbourg (Friday, 19:45)

  • Lens v Auxerre (Saturday, 16:15)

  • Toulouse v Lyon (Saturday, 19:45)

  • Nice v Lorient (Saturday, 19:45)

  • Troyes v Paris FC (Saturday, 19:45)

  • Le Mans v Brest (Saturday, 19:45)

  • Angers v Lille (Sunday, 14:00)

  • Le Havre v Monaco (Sunday, 16:15)

  • Paris Saint-Germain v Rennes (Sunday, 19:45)

Marseille against Strasbourg will kick off the new campaign on Friday evening, followed by five games on Saturday, with Toulouse v Lyon as the headliner.

Les Gones drew 1-1 with Fenerbahce in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday and with Wednesday's return leg massive for the club's future, they might be distracted, with Les Violets looking to mimic last season's 2-1 home victory.

The final three games take place on Sunday, including PSG in action against Rennes.

Ligue 1 Favourites

After winning Ligue 1 in the last five seasons and in 12 of the 15 campaigns since being bought by their Qatari owners, it is clear to see why PSG are the huge favourites to retain the domestic crown.

Their rivals will hope Les Parisiens get distracted by the chance to win another UEFA Champions League title, or become complacent, but the odds say that will not be the case.

Despite their Trophée des Champions success, Lens are only joint-fourth favourites to win Ligue 1, with Marseille, now under Bruno Génésio, expected to be PSG's closest rivals, followed by Monaco.

Lyon are sixth in the outright market, which drops off significantly to Rennes, who are seventh favourites at an unlikely 80/1.

Top Goalscorer Favourites

Esteban Lepaul joined Rennes from Angers in August 2025 and was last season's top scorer with 21 goals, matching the tally Ousmane Dembele and Mason Greenwood shared when they split the Golden Boot in 2024/25.

Lepaul's exclusion from France's World Cup squad was a major talking point, but after interest from Como and Benfica, he signed a new contract with the Breton club in June.

The market has him second behind Dembele, with the other top five places filled by PSG players in Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ferran Torres and Desire Doue.

Monaco's Folarin Balogun scored 13 goals last season and if he stays, will look to build on his encouraging World Cup with the USA, while Lyon's on-loan forward Lois Openda is someone to watch.

Last summer, the Belgian moved to Juventus on a season-long deal with the obligation to buy. However, the Bianconeri never seemed to have a plan for how best to use him, and he might be more comfortable back in Ligue 1, after netting 21 times in 38 games for Lens in 2022/23.

However, it might be a fit-again Argentine who proves to be the player to watch in the scoring markets...

Data-Led Ligue 1 Predictions & Analytics

  • The top three of Paris Saint-Germain (226 shots on target, 73 goals), Lens (189, 65) and Marseille (195, 62) had the most shots on target, resulting in the most goals

  • However, it was Strasbourg who were the most accurate team, registering 40.6% of their shots on target

  • PSG's Ousmane Dembele averaged an incredible 1.44 goals and assists per 90 minutes

  • Monaco's Ansu Fati averaged 1.98 shots on target per 90 minutes, yet only found the target with 55% of his efforts

  • Angers goalkeeper Herve Koffi made the most saves in the 2025/26 Ligue 1 with 120, contributing to his division-high 79.0% save percentage.

Ligue 1 Outright Prediction

A short price, but for a reason. Paris Saint-Germain may have lost the Trophée des Champions but had previously won the UEFA Super Cup and are targeting a third straight UEFA Champions League title.

They have had a curtailed pre-season as their players have returned from the World Cup and their squad is undergoing some remodelling.

Bradley Barcola and Ibrahim Mbaye are backed to follow Goncalo Ramos out the door following the arrivals of Torres, Maghnes Akliouche and Mike Godts, and Luis Enrique's side may take time to find rhythm.

However, they have shown themselves well capable of building through the season and their superiority means there feels little point in even looking at their rivals when it comes to the title race.

Alternative Tip

Perhaps, instead, focus on the 'To Win Outright Without' market by backing Lyon to finish second.

Nothing is ever normal with Les Gones, and they have endured a tumultuous time since Paulo Fonseca took over in January 2025.

Two months later, he was handed a massive ban for his behaviour towards a referee, and that summer, his team were relegated due to financial irregularities, only for the decision to be overturned after a boardroom reshuffle.

A threadbare squad finished fourth last season, earning them a place in UEFA Champions League qualifying, but Mads Bidstrup, Julien Duranville and Openda are all smart signings, while Malick Fofana remains one of Europe's brightest young wingers, hinting that Lyon are getting better.

Fonseca is a volatile but brilliant coach who thrives when given a young, mobile squad. He also has some excellent experienced figures in Corentin Tolisso, Nicolas Tagliafico and Ainsley Maitland-Niles.

They also have a habit of putting amazing runs together, at one stage winning 12 in a row in all competitions last season, while they are generally excellent at home, winning 12 of 17 games in 2025/26.

Their rivals have all made managerial changes, so this rare relatively calm summer in Décines-Charpieu might pay dividends.

Dark Horse to Watch

Lepaul won last season's Golden Boot, but his tally was only five more than Strasbourg's Joaquin Panichelli, who was struck down by a knee injury in March, costing him his World Cup place with Argentina.

Panichelli scored 16 goals in 24 starts before that, averaging 0.66 goals per game and was clearly growing in confidence after earning a starting role following the confirmation of Emmanuel Emegha's move to Chelsea.

The 23-year-old has returned to training and Racing are sure to manage his minutes. However, the same is true of Monaco's Ansu Fati and PSG's Dembele, the latter of whom also scored 16 Ligue 1 goals last season.

Panichelli is a complete forward and although he may take time to return to his best, he showed last season that when fit, there are few better in France.

Who Wins Ligue 1?

PSG are the best team in France and should cruise to another title. It's worth noting that, alongside their obvious superiority, potential rivals Marseille, Monaco, Lens and Lille are each set to begin the season under new coaches.

There's a possibility that at least one will struggle, strengthening PSG's hand, and possibly helping Lyon to take second.

Read more football betting tips and predictions on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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