After missing out on the play-offs by one point and lifting the EFL Trophy last season, the Racing Post's Jamie Griffith can see Luton Town enjoying another strong campaign in League One.
Unsurprisingly given the size of the club, Leicester City are strong favourites to win League One and make an immediate return to the Championship. However, a huge overhaul is expected at the King Power Stadium and it may take a while for them to get going.
The same is true of fellow relegated sides Sheffield Wednesday and Oxford United, although the former have made some smart acquisitions.
Plymouth Argyle, Huddersfield Town, Stockport County and promoted MK Dons will also be targeting promotion in what promises to be a thrilling League One season.
League One Tips and Predictions
Outright Prediction: Luton (8/1)
Alternative Tip: Sheffield Wednesday to be promoted (2/1)
Dark Horse Tip: Burton to finish bottom (9/1)
Opening Weekend Fixtures
Notts County v Leicester City
Oxford United v MK Dons
Reading v Luton Town
Barnsley v Bromley
Blackpool v Wycombe Wanderers
Bradford City v Peterborough United
Burton Albion v Stevenage
Cambridge United v Wigan Athletic
Huddersfield Town v AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient v Sheffield Wednesday
Mansfield Town v Doncaster Rovers
Plymouth Argyle v Stockport County
The 2026/27 League One season begins on Saturday 15th August, when all 24 teams take to the pitch and bid to make a perfect start.
The standout fixture sees promoted Notts County clash with East Midlands foes and title-favourites Leicester, while Plymouth’s showdown with Stockport could be telling of how the campaign will go for two teams with lofty ambitions.
League One Favourites
Leicester are the favourites to win League One. They are a fairly big 5/2, though, highlighting the competitive nature of the division.
Fellow relegated side Sheffield Wednesday come next at 6/1 while the third team to drop down, Oxford, are a huge 25/1 as they are led by managerial newcomer Aaron Ramsey.
Luton (8/1), Plymouth (12/1) and Huddersfield (14/1) are also in the running, as well as last season’s beaten play-off finalists, 16/1 Stockport.
Data-Led League One Predictions & Analytics
When diving deeper into potential outcomes, advanced metrics like xGF (expected goals for) and clean sheet percentage give a more predictive edge than headline form.
Here’s what the data tells us about the leading contenders:
No Championship side gave up more xGA (expected goals against) per 90 minutes than Sheffield Wednesday’s 1.77 last season.
Only the team who finished bottom, Northampton Town (74), conceded more goals in last season’s League One than Barnsley (73)
Plymouth will have been disappointed to miss out on last season’s play-offs but it was not for want of trying, with Argyle picking up 120 yellow cards, at least 15 more than any other side.
Expect direct play from Graham Alexander’s Bradford, who averaged 22.2 crosses per game in the 2025/26 League One season.
League One Outright Prediction
The few remaining Russell Martin believers will be all over Leicester in League One, but his failure at Rangers cannot be understated and while the final product of his style is fantastic, it often takes too long to get there.
Martin’s possession-based style could, in theory, dominate the third tier. However, having faith in a Leicester squad which needs a complete overhaul getting used to his meticulous style in such a short span of time is hard.
Sticking with a less volatile team seems the smarter move and Luton make serious appeal. They have already proven they can deal with nerves, winning the EFL Trophy last term, and they were unlucky to miss out on the play-offs.
The Hatters finished one point off the top six but expected points had them third, highlighting the great work Jack Wilshere has done since taking charge at Kenilworth Road.
Playmaker Kasey Palmer looks a shrewd signing while defenders George Johnston and Harrison Ashby will improve an already solid backline, so improvement is expected and a return to the Championship looks to be on the cards.
Alternative Tip
Martin’s Leicester are hard to trust and Oxford are an unknown entity under Ramsey, leaving Sheffield Wednesday as the standout pick of the sides coming down from the Championship.
Last season was a write-off for the Owls, who were dealt numerous points deductions and managed only one win. However, the financial restrictions have been lifted and, with new owners in charge, there is a feel-good factor at Hillsborough for the first time in years.
That should serve them well on the pitch, where some talented players will don the famous blue and white stripes. Owls legend Barry Bannan is back from a short spell with Millwall, Callum Slattery and Billy Mitchell are clever free signings, and the permanent addition of exciting youngster Louie Barry highlights the ambition of the new owners.
Wednesday are a decent bet to finish in the top two, although this is a competitive League One and backing them to be promoted may be a safer play in case the Owls have to battle their way through the play-offs.
Dark Horses to Watch
With Luton already laying claim to the promotion dark horses, it may be worth looking into the big prices at the other end of the table, where an intriguing relegation battle is sure to play out.
Big-spending MK Dons should steer clear of trouble but the other promoted sides - Bromley, AFC Wimbledon and Cambridge - could be in for a tougher campaign.
However, that trio have enough about them to suggest they can avoid finishing in the unwanted 24th spot. That honour may instead fall upon Burton.
The Brewers have stuck with manager Gary Bowyer despite a shocking 31.7 per cent win-rate and he has a major job on his hands as 15 first-team players have departed over the summer.
Admittedly, not all of those players were key cogs in his system, but that level of change is going to be hard to manage and an unsettled Burton are a huge price to finish bottom in such a competitive league.
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Who wins League One?
Leicester will be a popular pick among those who believe Martin can get his style across to a new-look Foxes side, while Sheffield Wednesday look genuine title contenders following some smart additions.
Luton get the nod, however, thanks to Wilshere’s impressive first full season, a strong squad and a togetherness which has seen them put in plenty of solid performances.
Stockport, Huddersfield and, potentially, promoted MK Dons will also be aiming high, but may have to settle for a play-off place at best.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
