After an automatic promotion race that’s almost gone right to the wire between four teams for second spot, the bruised trio must lick their wounds quickly.
Millwall, Southampton and Middlesbrough all managed 80+ points totals and would each make worthy additions to the Premier League, and then there’s underdogs Hull City, who carry a fierce determination to prove everyone wrong.
So, who reaches the promised land? And who will have to do it all over again? That’s what we’ll try to dissect in my 2025/26 Championship play-offs preview.
Millwall
Why they will do it
Defence. Jake Cooper has been arguably the most consistent centre-back in the Championship of the last decade, and they have him at the heart of their defence, alongside Tristan Crama, who has started all league games bar one at either centre-back or right-back.
The Lions are a great set piece side, they have individuals who can really create in Femi Azeez and Camiel Neghli, and the option to go two up top, with Josh Coburn and Mihailo Ivanovic forging a dangerous strike-pairing that’s catalysed big second halves in spring six-pointers at their promotion rivals.
Why they might not
Despite that attacking flexibility, Millwall have only scored 64 goals this season, even if they’ve had the chances to net a few more.
Defensively, meanwhile, their xG Against of 62.64 suggests they’ve road their luck to only concede 49, and they’ve been on the wrong side of the xG battle in four of their six encounters with their fellow play-off participants.
What the odds say
At 9/4, I think Millwall could be a fair value play.
Even though they’re only arguably the third-strongest team in the competition, they’re also the likeliest of the four to reach the final, by virtue of their favourable semi-final opponents.
In that scenario, you’d love to have got the 9/4 on side because it’s a toss-up for a one-off game.
Southampton
Why they will do it
Tonda Eckert and Ben Garner, after the former replaced Will Still in November and the latter became his assistant in January.
Under Will Still: 12 points from 13 games = 0.92 PPG
Under Tonda Eckert, pre-Garner appointment: 21 from 12 = 1.75 PPG, 90% improvement
Under Eckert, post-Garner appointment: 47 points from 21 games = 2.23 PPG, 27% improvement
This is a fantastic squad, with a blend of some reliable top-end Championship players like Ryan Manning, Finn Azaz, Tom Fellows, Flynn Downes, Jack Stephens and Cameron Archer, along with a handful of others like Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Leo Scienza and Shea Charles who belong well above the level.
So, great players, brilliantly coached, and they’ve been playing effectively like title-winners for four months.
Why they might not
Semi-final opposition. Middlesbrough are probably the toughest team they could be faced with in the competition, and reaching Wembley won’t be easy.
I’ll be honest, though, we’re struggling to find any weaknesses.
I do wonder if their FA Cup run, and the subsequent backlog of fixtures, might have caused fatigue, but that’s nitpicking: winning games is as big an energy boost as you can find, and they’re doing that.
What the odds say
At 2/1 favourites, bet365 traders make Southampton the likeliest play-off winners, and I think I agree with them.
The downside is that they have a tough semi-final, but I’m prepared to see past that - and the short price - in order to simply back the quickest horse to win the race.
Middlesbrough
Why they will do it
Performances. February’s 3-1 crunch loss at Coventry precipitated a run of 12 points from as many games at the worst possible point, as they dropped points at home to bottom half opposition five times – but the performances in those games weren’t that bad. Honest guv.
At that point, they just didn’t have the confidence in front of goal to bank the points they needed to make second spot their own, but a 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday preceded a 5-1 thumping of Watford on the penultimate weekend.
With Morgan Whittaker back, along with possibly star midfielder Hayden Hackney, who is being assessed day by day, they might just have found their groove at the perfect time, as far as the play-offs are concerned.
The Teessiders also have excellent defensive foundations, that Rob Edwards implemented – yes he did, Boro fans! – and Kim Hellberg has maintained, with just 47 goals shipped all year, nicely in line with a defensive xG of 51.38. Watch out for Adilson Malanda.
Why they might not
They don’t have a finisher.
They might ooze with creativity, especially when everyone’s available, but they don’t always make it pay, as we alluded to above.
Tommy Conway’s work ethic is sensational but the former Bristol City man will feel he could have scored more than 13 league goals this season with the chances he’s had, and Whittaker at 14 is the only other individual to manage double figures.
Nobody’s exactly racking up the big numbers.
What the odds say
I think Middlesbrough are the clear second-best team of the four, and in that sense the 9/4 might seem attractive, but because Southampton are their semi-final opponents it significantly decreases their chances of getting to the final.
If Hayden Hackney was fit and in-form, I’d go for it, but as we are it’s a reluctant pass.
Hull City
Why they will do it
They’re the ones we least suspect.
Written off by pundits as relegation fodder in a transfer-banned summer, Hull were then dismissed time and again throughout the season for lucky wins and unsustainable performances, with neutrals expecting them to drop out of the play-offs.
After a spring return of 10 points from 11 threatened to finally vindicate their doubters and kill off those pesky Tigers, they pounced for one last time with a 2-1 final day victory over Norwich, to make the cut at Wrexham and Derby’s expense.
Now, they have all the motivation they need to throw everything back in the faces of their critics by shocking everyone to win the play-offs.
Let’s be fair, too: although very much a ‘moments’ team, they do have players who can hurt opponents in attacking areas, in the shape of Mohamed Belloumi, Joe Gelhardt, Oli McBurnie and Liam Millar.
McBurnie, in particular, has delivered the big numbers this season, which is the one facet of their team that the likes of Millwall and Middlesbrough might envy.
Plus, goalkeeper Ivor Pandur has saved them a lot of points this season and could come up trumps once again when it matters most.
They’re the equivalent of the grieving granny in a Poirot, and sometimes they turn out to be the most dangerous…
Why they might not
Not only do Hull have the fourth-worst defensive record in the Championship, they also have the league’s second-highest xG Against at 82.69, and when you share a division with this season’s Sheffield Wednesday, it’s as bad as having the highest any other season.
So, in a competition that rewards solidity and organisation, Hull leave a lot to be desired in that regard.
What the odds say
Hull are by far the biggest price at 6/1, but there’s a reason for that, and it’s the gulf in class between themselves and the rest.
This is football and strange things can happen, but I’m not sure there’s a realistic price the traders could give me that would make me want to bet on them.
Check out the Championship play-off fixtures and odds in full on site.
All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
