The ODI Tri-Series concludes with a mouthwatering rematch between Pakistan and Sri Lanka at Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore on Saturday.
Pakistan looked like the standout team in the competition after winning their opening three matches, but their momentum was halted in dramatic fashion on Tuesday.
Sri Lanka skittled the Men in Green for just 110 and cruised to an eight-wicket victory that booked their berth in the final.
Despite that result, the hosts remain favourites to take the trophy because they have won four of their last five ODIs against Sri Lanka.
Pakistan have been powered by match-winning performances throughout the series as Salman Ali Agha struck a superb century to down the Lankans in the opening match.
Arafat Minhas’ mesmerising spell of spin undid England in Game 2 before Shadab Khan's unbeaten hundred rescued his side from a seemingly impossible position against the same opponents in Game 4.
Sri Lanka, however, have proven they cannot be underestimated. Their remarkable chase of 430 against England was one of the most memorable moments of the tournament, while their rout of Pakistan demonstrated the quality of their bowling unit.
With Gaddafi Stadium expected to offer another good batting surface and both teams packed with in-form players, the stage is set for a thrilling contest to decide the Tri-Series champions.
Pakistan v Sri Lanka Tips Summary
Best Bet - Pakistan -5.5 wkts/-24.5 runs @ 5/6
Alternative Bet - Arafat Minhas Over 1.5 wickets @ 10/11
Bet Builder - Babar Azam 30+ runs, Pavan Rathnayake 30+ runs & Arafat Minhas top Pakistan bowler @ 17/1
Pakistan v Sri Lanka Prediction
Best Bet: Pakistan -5.5 wkts/-24.5 runs @ 5/6
Pakistan will be desperate to respond after their batting collapse in the last meeting between the sides, and they look capable of doing exactly that.
While a total of 110 was a major disappointment, it was also an outlier when compared to the rest of Pakistan's campaign. Prior to that defeat, the hosts had posted totals of 305 and 302, while their middle order repeatedly delivered under pressure.
Experienced performers such as Babar Azam, Salman Ali Agha and Shadab Khan should give Pakistan every chance of recovering quickly from one poor display.
Their bowling attack also looks stronger than Sri Lanka's on paper with Arafat Minhas the tournament's leading wicket-taker and captain Shaheen Shah Afridi only one scalp behind with eight.
Sri Lanka have the batting firepower to challenge when they put it all together but their bowling attack has struggled for consistency.
In home conditions and with a stronger overall tournament record and greater squad depth, Pakistan are backed to bounce back and secure the trophy.
But it is also worth backing the Men in Green to cover the match handicap. They have won 13 of their last 15 ODIs against Sri Lanka and sealed four of their last five victories by more than five wickets or 24 runs.
Alternative Bet: Arafat Minhas Over 1.5 wickets @ 10/11
Arafat leads the wicket-taking charts with nine dismissals and has been Pakistan's most reliable bowler during the competition.
He has consistently created breakthroughs during the middle overs and has proved difficult to score against throughout the tournament.
With Sri Lanka's batting heavily reliant on Pavan Rathnayake and Kusal Mendis, Minhas could once again play a decisive role if he can remove one or both of those key players.
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Pakistan v Sri Lanka Bet Builder Tip
Babar Azam 30+ runs
Pavan Rathnayake 30+ runs
Arafat Minhas top Pakistan bowler
Pays 17/1
Babar looks a strong candidate to make at least 30 runs despite his modest score of 29 in the previous meeting. The former captain has 243 runs across his last seven ODIs and remains the linchpin of Pakistan’s batting lineup.
Coming off a sublime 118 against England and after playing a major role throughout the series, Rathnayake is difficult to overlook for another good contribution.
Add Arafat to be the top Pakistan bowler to this Bet Builder. The left-arm spinner has claimed nine wickets in four Tri-Series matches, including a sensational six-wicket haul earlier in the competition.
Key Match Stats
Pakistan have won 13 of the last 15 ODIs against Sri Lanka
Pakistan have won nine of their last 11 home ODIs
Sri Lanka defeated Pakistan by eight wickets in their most recent meeting
Arafat is the leading wicket-taker in the tournament with nine
Rathnayake is the leading run-scorer in the tournament with 350 runs
Babar has scored 30+ runs in six of his last nine ODI innings
Tactics, Form and Team News
Pakistan will ponder another change at the top of the order with Sahibzada Farhan and Maaz Sadaqat the potential pairing after Saim Ayub was released from the squad and Fakhar Zaman lost form.
Predicted Pakistan line-up: Sahibzada Farhan, Maaz Sadaqat, Babar Azam, Saad Baig (wk), Salman Ali Agha, Hasan Nawaz, Arafat Minhas, Razaullah, Shaheen Shah Afridi (c), Shadab Khan, Haris Rauf.
Sri Lanka also have little reason to alter a side that comfortably defeated Pakistan and pushed England hard despite eventually losing their final group game.
Predicted Sri Lanka line-up: Kamindu Mendis, Avishka Fernando, Kusal Mendis (c & wk), Pavan Rathnayake, Dasun Shanaka, Janith Liyanage, Sahan Arachchige, Dunith Wellalage, Eshan Malinga, Asitha Fernando, Dilshan Madushanka.
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
