Cardiff City entertain an in-form Birmingham City in a fascinating Championship clash at the Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday.
Brian Barry-Murphy's side are the second tier's statistical sweethearts as they rank prominently across a number of metrics, but they haven't quite accumulated the points their performances arguably deserve with just two wins from 11 on their return to the Championship.
However, Cardiff have picked up two excellent results in their most recent outings after defeating Watford 5-1 in the Welsh capital before holding Middlesbrough to a 2-2 draw at the Riverside, even if they did relinquish a two-goal lead.
Visiting Cardiff this weekend is a Birmingham City side who are searching for a fourth successive league win - an accomplishment the Blues haven't achieved in the Championship since 2018.
Birmingham have returned from the international break in emphatic form having defeated local rivals West Brom at The Hawthorns prior to comprehensive back-to-back successes over Preston and QPR at St Andrew's.
The Blues are in irresistible form at present, and Gavin Horsfall of the Football Betting Club is backing them to maintain their winning charge.
Cardiff City v Birmingham City Prediction & Tips
Best Bet: Birmingham City to Win @ 29/20
Horsfall said: "Cardiff are an interesting team; they're good on the data for those of you that like to talk about underlying numbers.
"The Bluebirds are a team that are producing a lot, they score highly on xG, they rank highly on volume of shots on target and there's no doubt their form is starting to take on a look of being very competitive against the bottom half.
"But I think Birmingham heading to Cardiff this weekend is an extremely tough one for them.
"One of the first podcasts we done on the Football Betting Show was discussing Chris Davies and how he could be in a bit of trouble, but since going to Wrexham and winning, this looks a side that have really benefited from a second season in the Championship.
"I always think you take the first season to acclimatise, and it was Davies' first season in the division. In this second campaign, I think we're seeing a Blues team to trust over the second half of the season.
"They're going to face a bigger tests, and this theory about acclimatising to the division will come under greater scrutiny in March where we'll see if they're the type of team to grind out victories in the spring when they really need to.
"But at the moment, they're certainly circled on an automatic promotion chance in my list.
"They're a good price here, and there was some money around for the 6/4 when it opened, but 29/20 is fine.
"Like I said, Cardiff are good on the underlying numbers, but the data starts to let them down when you dig into it and look at the quality aspect - it's high on volume, but low on quality.
"Blues, on the other hand, are the real deal this term. They were 5/4 at Derby and won, and they were 15/8 at West Brom and won. This is a really decent price for them to go to Wales for the third time and win having beaten Swansea in the EFL Cup and Wrexham in the Championship."
Key Match Stats
Cardiff City have lost just one of their last 11 league games against Birmingham City
Cardiff have the highest average possession in the Championship (61.6%)
Cardiff rank third for xG, shots on target per match and big chances missed
Birmingham have won each of their last three league games without conceding - their longest run since November 2006
Birmingham have conceded the second fewest goals from open play (6) in the Championship
Only Swansea's Lawrence Vigouroux has kept more clean sheets than Birmingham's James Beadle
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All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of recording and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
