Arnold Palmer Invitational Power Rankings

After the drama of last week’s Cognizant Classic, the PGA Tour heads to Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

One of the highlights of the PGA Tour calendar, players must wrestle with what can be a brutish Bay Hill with winning scores rarely getting past the mid-teens; indeed, you have to go back to 2018 for the last time the runner-up got past 10-under-par for the week.

A supremely difficult ball-striking test owing to the water waiting to consume golf balls at every turn, players need to be at least long or straight off the tee and ideally both.

Interestingly, Bay Hill used to favour longer hitters, but changes to the course have brought more water into play while the rough is more penal than it once was, placing more of an emphasis on accuracy. In last year’s top five were straight-ballers Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Sepp Straka and winner Russell Henley, with the likes of Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Aaron Rai, Tommy Fleetwood and Scottie Scheffler not far behind.

Despite its length, the hazards around the course mean that driver is often left in the bag, perhaps negating the biggest strength of some players, and benefitting long-iron specialists.

Once the heavy lifting is taken out of holes, players are presented with large, fast Bermudagrass greens, lending an advantage to those comfortable on this particular surface.

The third Signature Event of the season attracts another stellar field, but who makes the top five in our Arnold Palmer Invitational Power Rankings? Find out below.

5 - Jake Knapp

Jake Knapp’s only made one appearance at Bay Hill and it produced one of the highest hole scores in PGA Tour history, carding a 12 on – where else? – number 6. Knapp was not three or even five off the tee, but seven, all coming 24 hours after making eagle on the very same hole.

Of course, Knapp is a very different golfer these days. He’s always had remarkable distance off the tee, but this season he’s tightened up significantly so as not to fear Bay Hill. Knapp’s approach play is steady and his putting is steadily improving, enjoying nice results on greens in this part of the world, as well as finishing third at last year’s Zurich Classic, also played on Bermuda.

Starting the year T11, T5, 8, T8, 6, Knapp will be brimming with confidence this week.

4 - Collin Morikawa

Finally getting that long-overdue win under his belt, Collin Morikawa followed his Pebble Beach triumph with an impressive T7 at Riviera, a wholly different course. It’s no coincidence that Morikawa’s best finish at Bay Hill came last year, on the back of the changes to the venue.

Prior to that, Morikawa was T64-T9-MC-MC at Bay Hill.

The two-time major champion remains supremely accurate off the tee and is quietly adding distance. Combined with his elite iron play, the only question is whether or not his short game holds up.

If it does, he has every chance of a second win in 2026.

3 - Tommy Fleetwood

Tommy Fleetwood hasn’t pulled any trees up so far this season, yet has a T4 and T7 to his name in Signature Events. That he can record those kind of finishes without attracting much attention tells you the level the Englishman is at these days.

Fleetwood has a mixed record at Bay Hill. In alternate years he’s been T10-T3-T10-T61-T11. In the other alternate years he’s been T26-MC-T20-MC.

Fleetwood has a fondness for golf in this part of the world, recording top-five finishes in all four events of the Florida Swing, and with a game that looks perfectly suited to the renovated Bay Hill,  it’s hard to see the 35-year-old not appearing on the leaderboard once more.

2 - Rory McIlroy

It’s still early in the season but the signs so far have been promising for Rory McIlroy. Ranking first in the field for SG:T2G across the last eight tournaments as per Golf Betting System, the Grand Slam winner admitted he’s pleased with where his game is, and the week off should have done him no harm.

McIlroy has been impressive this season, and his T14 at Pebble Beach would have been much better if not for dropping some absolute clangers across the week.

He was unable to chase down Jacob Bridgeman, but take nothing away from his runner-up finish at the Genesis – his best result at the tournament to date.

McIlroy has a brilliant record at Bay Hill, with just two finishes outside the top 15 in 11 appearances and never finishing worse than T27. McIlroy also has six top-10s including his 2018 victory.

If there is a concern it’s McIlroy’s tendency to be occasionally wild off the tee, which Bay Hill will punish, but if he can stay out of trouble, he’s sure to be there or thereabouts on Sunday.

1 - Scottie Scheffler

It’s been quite stunning to watch Scottie Scheffler’s struggles of late. It’s been equally stunning to watch his struggles and see him finish no worse than T12 in his last three events.

Is this just a blip? Quite possibly, but Scheffler’s typically iron-clad approach numbers have dipped in the last few weeks, though his driving, putting and short game have remained excellent.

It’s hard to imagine Scheffler’s struggles (it should be stated, Scheffler’s bad days remain few and far between, and are still better than most players’ good days) continuing, and Bay Hill looks like the ideal venue to get back in the winners’ circle.

Scheffler is no worse than T15 in his five outings at Bay Hill, and don’t be at all surprised to see him donning the red jacket for a third time on Sunday evening.