Welcome to NFL Week 11!
The Action Network’s Chief Content Officer Chad Millman has his picks and analysis for the NFL Week 11 slate, including Same Game Parlay, Money Line parlay, and a Best Bet for the weekend.
Jump ahead to each segment:
- 7 division rivalries in Week 11
- Playoff picture update
- Same Game Parlay: Lions vs. Bears
- Money Line Parlay
- Chad's Best Bet
Let's dive in!
Division rivals meet in Week 11
With each day the temperature drops and days shorten this fall and winter, the football gets more and more important. Especially when it’s a matchup between storied division rivals.
Week 11 features seven divisional games, kicking off with the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Who typically thrives in these all-important matchups? The road team, specifically road underdogs, says Chad.
This week, the Bengals (@ BAL), Bears (@DET), Giants (@ WAS), Steelers (@ CLE), Titans (@ JAX), Jets (@ BUF), and Seahawks (@ LAR) are on the road against divisional opponents. Only the Seahawks (-1.5) are favored among those seven teams.
Playoff implications
With these divisional matchups come serious playoff implications, especially at this time of year.
The Bengals have shaken off their early-season troubles to get to 5-4, but their margin of error remains miniscule in a stacked AFC North. A loss on Thursday night would leave Cincy two wins behind third place in the division and jeopardize their playoff hopes even further.
Think the Bengals will fall to the Ravens on TNF? Consider the Bengals to miss the playoffs, currently priced at +110.
The same goes for the 6-3 Seahawks, says Chad, who are +280 to miss the playoffs ahead of Sunday’s NFC West matchup with the Rams. Pete Carroll’s men still have the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers (twice) on their remaining schedule. A loss to LA would put doubts in the mind of many who may have believed Seattle was a shoe-in for the NFC playoffs.
Same Game Parlay: Lions match up well vs. Bears
The high-flying Lions host one of the NFL’s worst defenses in Week 11, and Chad is eyeing player props for Detroit’s premier playmakers.
The Jared Goff-led offense has been a resounding success in 2023, averaging 406.4 yards/game (2nd in NFL) and 26.8 points/game (6th in NFL). Meanwhile, the Chicago defense, while improved since the acquisition of DE Montez Sweat, has trouble defending the pass, ranking 26th in pass defense
Expect Goff and the Lions to move the ball well against a subpar Chicago defense on Sunday.
Chad’s Same Game Parlay: J. Goff Over Pass Yards, D. Montgomery Anytime TD, S. LaPorta Over Receiving Yards
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Who wins in Week 11?
Chad’s Week 11 Money Line parlay features three big favorites.
The Lions (-400 ML) host the Bears for chance to move to 8-2. Since Week 8 of the 2022 season, Detroit is 15-4, an impressive turnaround from their years as the NFC North’s bottom-dwellers.
Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins (-850 ML) host the Raiders in one of the most lopsided games of the weekend on paper. Miami leads the NFL is yards and points per game and is yet to lose a game at home this season.
The Cowboys (-550 ML) then visit the one-win Panthers, a must-win for Dallas in order to make up ground in the NFC East. Dak Prescott and company have been on a roll since their Week 5 blowout loss to the 49ers, a narrow loss to the Eagles the only blip on the way.
Chad’s Money Line Parlay: Lions ML, Dolphins ML, Cowboys ML
Chad's Best Bet
Despite what we know about both the Lions and the Bears, consider some recurring trends when betting divisional matchups such as these.
Road teams in divisional matchups, particularly road underdogs, cover the spread at a favorable clip. Throw in the 9-point spread, one of the largest in Week 11,
Chad’s Best Bet: Bears +9
Odds displayed within this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
