Welcome to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs!
The Action Network's Chief Content Officer Chad Millman has his picks and analysis for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, including a Chiefs-Bills preview, Money Line Parlay, and a Best Bet for the weekend.
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Let's dive in!
Patrick Mahomes has entered a game as an underdog just 10 times in his seven-year career, a small sample size is causing plenty of confusion among professional bettors.
In those games, Mahomes is 8-1-1 against the spread, and that bodes well for the Chiefs this weekend. But KC finished the season with a below-average run defense, while Buffalo gained the seventh-most yards on the ground and scored the fifth-most rushing TDs.
Chad says that many bettors see injuries as the deciding factor, and that favors the Chiefs because Bills defensive players Terrel Bernard, Christian Benford, Taylor Rapp, and Baylon Spector are all dealing with injuries.
The Lions are favored by a TD against the Buccaneers this weekend, and Chad likes Detroit to win this game outright.
Detroit's defense finished 27th in the league in both passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns allowed, and the Buccaneers' secondary wasn't much better as it finished 29th in the league in passing yards allowed and 17th in passing touchdowns allowed.
Both teams will likely focus their attacks through the air, so Chad is looking for Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to hit the over on his receiving yards and for Bucs QB Baker Mayfield to hit the over on his passing yards.
Chad's Same Game Parlay: Lions ML, A. St. Brown Over Receiving Yards, B. Mayfield Over Pass Yards
There are only four games this weekend, and Chad is taking three favorites for his Money Line Parlay.
Chad likes the two rested teams - the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers - to win their games, and he is taking the Detroit Lions to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Chad's Money Line Parlay: Ravens ML, Lions ML, 49ers ML
The San Francisco 49ers are favored by more than a touchdown (-9.5) in the Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers, but Chad thinks oddsmakers are being too kind to Green Bay after they won as underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card round.
Chad says people should not forget that this 49ers team might be the best team in football and they are a much more complete team than the Packers. It's also worth noting that the Packers defense finished 23rd in the league in takeaways with 18 on the season, while also finishing 17th in yards allowed.
In the last month and a half of the season, Green Bay narrowly beat the Los Angeles Chargers, lost to the New York Giants, and allowed 30 points in a narrow win over the Carolina Panthers, who finished the season 2-15.
Chad thinks the line should really favor the Niners by 12 points, so bettors should take advantage of the 9.5-point spread.
Chad's Best Bet: SF 49ers -9.5
Odds mentioned in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.