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NFL Championship Tips and Predictions with Chad Millman

Welcome to the week of the NFL Championship!

The Action Network's Chief Content Officer Chad Millman has his picks and analysis for the NFL Championship, including a Chiefs-49ers preview, a Same Game Parlay, an exotic Prop Bet, and a Best Bet for the weekend.

Jump ahead here:

Let's dive in!

Chiefs vs. 49ers preview

The line movement ahead of this game has been exciting to watch, as the Chiefs opened as +3.0 underdogs. Professional bettors liked that line, so as a result, it moved to Chiefs +2.0.

Chad says professional bettors like the 49ers at -1.5 or -2.0, but beyond that, they begin to hesitate as a result of Mahomes magic. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 against the spread and 9-3 outright as an underdog in his career.

Mahomes has dominated in the playoffs in the past, and bettors are hesitating as a result of what Kansas City's QB is capable of doing on the game's biggest stage.

Same Game Parlay

Deebo Samuel missed two regular season games, and he still has 12 touchdowns on the year. He's crucial to the 49ers' offense approaching the goal line, and Chad likes him to find the end zone.

Mahomes has completed 26 passes or more in just 30 percent of his games this season, so Chad will take the Under on his completions prop.

Travis Kelce has been coming up huge in the playoffs, especially this postseason, and Chad thinks he will get plenty of looks from Mahomes in the big game.

Chad's Same Game Parlay: D. Samuel Anytime TD, P. Mahomes Under Passing Completions, T. Kelce Over Receiving Yards

Chad's Favorite Exotic Prop

Chad has picked an untraditional prop, and it's one that comes with historical backing. He thinks the last play of the game will be a QB kneel.

The last time the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers met at this stage in 2020, Mahomes ended the game with a series of kneels. He had hit the Over on his rushing yards total for the game heading into that drive, but he knelt enough times to send his total back Under.

Chad's Favorite Exotic Prop: Last Play to be a QB Kneel - Yes

Chad's Best Bet

Most fans and experts will tell you that the San Francisco 49ers are the better team going into this matchup, and Chad agrees. He thinks that top to bottom, the Niners are a more complete and talented team than the Kansas City Chiefs.

But the Chiefs have one thing going for them that the Niners do not: Patrick Mahomes. Historically, betting against Mahomes is not a good idea, Chad says.

Mahomes has his nearly-flawless record against the spread as an underdog, and he's coming off two huge road wins against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. As a result, Chad is taking the Chiefs' spread.

Chad's Best Bet: Chiefs +2.0

Odds mentioned in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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