Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The Phoenix Mercury meet the New York Liberty for the first time this season at Barclays Center in Brooklyn at 7 PM ET on Thursday night.

Phoenix is getting healthy and has won a WNBA-high three straight and four of five overall and, at 9-4, now sits third in the league standings. The Mercury knocked off the Connecticut Sun last night, 83-75, and have now won the first two contests in this four-game road trip.

Alyssa Thomas (14.4 ppg, 9 apg, 6.6 rpg), who came over from the Sun in an offseason trade, had 14 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds against her former team after missing five games with a calf injury. Satou Sabally (20.6 ppg, 7.9 rpg), Phoenix’s leading scorer, had 12 points and a season-high 15 rebounds, Lexi Held added 14 points, Kitja Laksa chipped in with 11, and Kahleah Copper, in just her second game back this season, had 13 points.

The Mercury are two games behind the Liberty, the defending WNBA champions, who are 10-1 and 6-0 at home this season. New York suffered its first loss of the season Saturday in a 102-88 setback at Caitlin Clark's Indiana Fever. The Liberty bounced back with an 86-81 victory over the Atlanta Dream Tuesday evening, but not before trailing by 17 points midway through the third quarter.

Sabrina Ionescu had a game-high 34 points to lead New York in scoring for the third straight game and fifth time this season. She added seven rebounds while Breanna Stewart had 23 points and six boards and Jonquel Jones contributed 10 points and 10 rebounds.

Ionescu (20.8 ppg, 5.1 apg) now leads New York in scoring, a point ahead of Stewart (19.8 ppg), while Jones (13.4 ppg, 10.3 rpg) is averaging a double-double.

New York took 3-of-4 from the Mercury last season. This is the first of two meetings between the two teams over the next eight days.

Can the Mercury stay hot and gain some ground on New York, or can the Liberty keep the pressure on the Minnesota Lynx at the top of the WNBA standings? Read below for our experts’ predictions and player props projections.

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty betting picks and predictions

Phoenix Mercury +11.0 (-110)

The Mercury have lost by double digits twice this season, at the Lynx by 23 and at home to the Seattle Storm by 12. Both of those defeats came without Thomas and Copper in the lineup. In fact, Phoenix has won five straight and is 7-1 overall with Thomas in the lineup.

The five-time All-Star is still one of the most elite all-around players in the league, and Phoenix just flows differently with her on the court.

New York is still 10-1, but the team’s last two performances have opened the door for some doubt. The Liberty still lead the league in scoring offense at 89.8 points a game, but they are now second in scoring defense, allowing 75.1 points per contest after surrendering 102 in the loss to Indiana and 81 in the tough win over Atlanta.

The Liberty are at home, where they are 6-0, winning by 20 points per contest. New York’s 14.7 point differential leads the WNBA, but is facing another double-digit spread tonight. The Liberty have won by less than 11 points or lost five times this season, including three of their past four games.

With Phoenix filling out its roster and getting hot at just the right time, our experts like the Mercury to cover the 11.0-point spread as underdogs.

Under 162.0 total points (-110)

Phoenix’ roster has changed drastically from last season, but these teams have routinely played to the under lately, six times in the past eight games over the past two seasons. New York is allowing just 75.1 points per game. Phoenix is not far behind, giving up just 77.4 points. The Mercury’s game plan should be to slow down the pace just enough to keep the game within reach and make a run late.

Sabrina Ionescu over 19.5 points (-110)

The three-time All-Star started the season slowly, combining for 24 points in wins over the Las Vegas Aces and Chicago Sky to open the 2025 campaign.

Since then, she has gone for 23 or more points in six of the Liberty’s next nine games. That includes back-to-back season-high 34-point outputs against the Fever and Dream.

Ionescu has shot 55% or better from the field in five of her last games and made at least four 3-pointers in five of her last seven games.

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty odds

Phoenix Mercury	+500
New York Liberty	-700
Spread	NY Liberty -11.0
Total Points	O/U 162.0

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty player props

Player Points

Satou Sabally (PHX Mercury)	O/U 20.5
Kahleah Copper (PHX Mercury)	O/U 14.5
Alyssa Thomas (PHX Mercury)	O/U 12.5
Sabrina Ionescu (NY Liberty)	O/U 19.5
Breanna Stewart (NY Liberty)	O/U 18.5
Jonquel Jones (NY Liberty)	O/U 12.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.