After scoring 38 points in the series opener, Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx are on the verge of winning their 2024 WNBA first-round playoff series against the Phoenix Mercury.

The two teams match up again at the Target Center. The last time the Lynx advanced in the postseason was 2020, when they knocked off the Mercury back when the first round consisted of just one game. 

The opening contest was a barnburner, with the Lynx taking a 102-95 decision thanks to Collier, with Kayla McBride adding 20 points. Natasha Cloud exploded for the Mercury, scoring 33 points. 

Read below for our experts' predictions and player props projections.  

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx betting picks and predictions

Phoenix Mercury +9.0 (-110)

Minnesota has taken four out of five games in the season series, including all three games at home.

The Mercury have veterans Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner on the squad, amongst others, who won't go down without a fight. It showed in Game 1, and expect it to show again here. 

Minnesota has won 15 of its last 17 games overall, including seven of eight at home, and the Lynx are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games. Minnesota is also 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games versus the Mercury. Phoenix, meanwhile, has only won three of its last 11 games, and is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13.

The trends favor Minnesota to win this game, while Phoenix's performance Sunday night hints at a cover. Look for the Mercury to cover that nine-point spread. 

Over 161.0 total points (-110)

The teams have surpassed this total four times in five meetings this season, and with seasons on the line, expect the scoring to again be high. Four of Phoenix's last five games on the road have gone to the over. 

The Lynx and Mercury may not approach 200 points again, but look for the teams to total more than 161.0 points. 

Brittney Griner Under 14.5 points (-115)

Griner finished second on the Mercury in scoring, averaging 17.8 points per game. However, she has scored 14 points or less in the team's last three games. She was fourth on the team with 10 points in the series opener.

With Cloud exploding for 33, Taurasi going for 21, and Kahleah Copper scoring 16, the thought here is that Griner's primary focus will be on the boards, defending the paint, and moving the ball back to the perimeter.

Look for Griner to fill the stat sheet, but score less than 14.5 points.    

Napheesa Collier Over 22.5 points (-115)

Collier, who finished tied for fourth in the WNBA with 20.4 points per game, picked the perfect time to score her season-high, dropping 38 points in Game 1.

Look for a similar performance, even if 38 is not the final result. She has scored more than 22.5 points 15 times this season and this game could be No. 16. 

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx odds

Phoenix Mercury	+350 ML
Minnesota Lynx	-450 ML
Spread	Minnesota -9.0
Total Points	O/U 161.0

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx player props

Player Points

Kahleah Copper (Phoenix Mercury)	O/U 16.5
Brittney Griner (Phoenix Mercury)	O/U 14.5
Diana Taurasi (Phoenix Mercury)	O/U 14.5
Napheesa Collier (Minnesota Lynx)	O/U 22.5
Kayla McBride (Minnesota Lynx)	O/U 15.5
Courtney Williams (Minnesota Lynx)	O/U 10.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.