Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The Phoenix Mercury travel to Las Vegas to take on the Aces in the first of four meetings this season at 6 pm ET on Sunday.

The Mercury are 7-4, alternating losses and wins in their last six contests. This team looks considerably different from last year’s squad, thanks to the retirement of Diana Taurasi, the absence of Kahleah Copper to a knee injury, and the offseason departures of Brittney Griner and Natasha Cloud.

In their stead have stepped Satou Sabally, who came over from the Dallas Wings, and Alyssa Thomas, a 12-year veteran traded from the Sun this past offseason in a deal that included Cloud going back to Connecticut.

Sabally, a sixth-year forward and two-time All-Star, leads the Mercury with 20.5 points and 7.8 rebounds. She had 20 points and nine boards in Phoenix’ 93-80 victory over the lowly Wings on Wednesday in their last game.

Thomas had 11 points and 10 assists in the win over Dallas. Despite missing five games with a calf injury, the five-time All-Star is averaging 14.5 points and her 8.3 assists would lead the league handily when she qualifies. She has made the All-WNBA team in each of the past three seasons, including first teamer in each of the last two campaigns.

Sabally and Thomas’ presence has eased the pain of Copper’s absence from the lineup. After coming over from the Chicago Sky ahead of the 2024 season, Copper averaged a career-high 21.1 points and added 4.5 rebounds. She has not played this season, but is expected to debut tonight in Las Vegas.  

The Aces, meanwhile, are 5-4, with their last win also coming against the Wings, an 88-84 tightrope Friday. In fact, the team needed a 17-2 run to close the game and walk away with a victory over 1-11 Dallas.

Jackie Young, who went 8-for-8 from the free throw line during that closing stretch, had 28 points and five assists to lead Las Vegas. She is averaging 19.4 points on the season. Jewell Loyd doubled her season average of 10.4 points with a 21-point showing against Dallas, and Chelsea Gray (16.4 ppg) chipped in with 13 points and five assists.

It was Las Vegas’ first game without reigning and three-time MVP Wilson, who is in concussion protocol after leaving later in the third quarter of Wednesday night’s 97-89 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks with a head injury.

Wilson leads the Aces in all major categories, and is third in the league in both scoring (20.9 ppg) and rebounding (9.5 rpg).

Phoenix’s record reflects the team meeting expectations, with two losses each to the Western Conference-leading Minnesota Lynx and the Seattle Storm. The team’s only victory over a team currently above .500 is a season-opening win over Seattle.

The Aces, who lost in the semifinals last year after winning two straight titles, are in the same boat. Their only victory over a team that currently sports a winning record is also against Seattle. 

So who will win tonight’s matchup and take a step forward in the league and Western Conference standings? Read below for our experts’ predictions and player props projections.  

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces betting picks and predictions

Phoenix Mercury -4.5 (-110)

This line is a reflection on Wilson’s absence from the Aces’ lineup. It helps that Copper is back and available for Phoenix, but this is more about the six-time All-Star missing her second straight game for Las Vegas after the team struggled to defeat Dallas. 

The Aces have won 12-of-13 against Phoenix, taking 3-of-4 versus the Mercury last season. But the team is without Wilson, shooting horribly (39.3% from the field is the league’s worst percentage), and is just 1-3 against the spread at home this season.

Las Vegas will need to depend again on its free throw prowess. It leads the league with an 84.7% mark from the charity stripe, making more free throws per game than anyone in the WNBA.

But Phoenix will be sparked by Copper’s presence, finally allowing second-year coach Nate Tibbets to display his new Big Three with Sabally and Thomas.

The Mercury create the most turnovers in the league - 16.5 per game - and will pressure guards Young, Gray, and Loyd all night.

Over 165.0 total points (-110)

Both teams are playing consistently to the over right now. Las Vegas has done so in four of its last five contests, and Phoenix has done so in four of its last six games.

Expect those trends to continue tonight as the Aces, in particular, try to speed the game up.  

Jackie Young over 21.5 points (-130) 

This is a necessity pick with Wilson sidelined. Young has had her two-highest scoring performances in the last two games with Wilson injured and then out of the lineup. She had 34 against the Sparks on Wednesday and then 28 versus Dallas Friday.

Look for the three-time All-Star to keep up that pace and top 21.5 points for the third straight time and fifth overall this season.    

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces odds

Phoenix Mercury	-200
Las Vegas Aces	+165
Spread	PHX Mercury -4.5
Total Points	O/U 165.0

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces player props

Player Points

Satou Sabally (PHX Mercury)	O/U 21.5
Alyssa Thomas (PHX Mercury)	O/U 12.5
Sami Whitcomb (PHX Mercury)	O/U 8.5
Jackie Young (LV Aces)	O/U 21.5
Chelsea Gray (LV Aces)	O/U 15.5
Jewell Loyd (LV Aces)	O/U 14.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.