Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings: Picks, Predictions and Odds

It’s just the ninth game of the 2025 WNBA season for the Minnesota Lynx and the 10th for the Dallas Wings, but Sunday’s matchup at Target Center already marks the third of four scheduled meetings between these teams. And with both prior games providing entertaining, competitive basketball, and this one counting toward the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup, stakes will be elevated in Dallas.

The Lynx took the first meeting in Dallas, 99-84, as 4.5-point favorites and then returned home to narrowly edge the Wings 85-81 as 11.5-point favorites in the second. The Lynx are unbeaten at 8-0, and are now rested (with their most recent game on Tuesday), healthy and clicking on both ends.

Meanwhile, the Wings have stumbled to a 1-8 start, have just played on Friday and are also dealing with injuries.

Minnesota star Napheesa Collier has dominated the matchup so far, and with Kayla McBride and Alanna Smith both now back and fully integrated into the rotation, this game could tilt heavily in the Lynx’s favor.

Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings betting picks and predictions

Minnesota Lynx -11.0 (-110)

Minnesota enters this game as a clear favorite for good reason. At 8-0, they’re one of just two unbeaten teams left in the league (the other being the reigning champion New York Liberty), and they’ve shown they can handle Dallas regardless of venue or game pace.

The Lynx beat the Wings by 15 in Dallas without McBride or Smith. They followed that up with a four-point win at home that was closer than expected, but still solid considering how early in the season it was.

Now, with McBride (16.0 PPG) and Smith (11.9 PPG) fully up to speed and Collier continuing to lead the WNBA in scoring at 25.1 points per game, the Lynx are simply deeper, more disciplined and much better defensively.

Dallas, on the other hand, continues to search for answers. Their lone win came against the 2-6 Connecticut Sun, and they’ve dropped four straight since. Even more concerning, the Wings rank 11th in defensive rating while playing at the second fastest pace.

They also struggle to control the glass, ranking dead last in defensive rebounding rate. That weakness played a big role in the second loss to Minnesota, as the Lynx were able to extend possessions and capitalize on second-chance scoring opportunities.

With the Commissioner’s Cup implications in play and Minnesota finally at full strength, expect a focused, professional effort from Cheryl Reeve’s squad, and the Lynx are poised to cover the 11.5-point spread.

Over 169.5 Total Points (-110)

While the Lynx have preferred a slower pace of play (ranking 12th in tempo), their two matchups with Dallas have both gone higher than all of their other games.

Dallas has managed to score 84 and 81 points in the two meetings, respectively, which is the most and second-most Minnesota has allowed all season. That’s in large part due to the Wings’ ability to force tempo and get out in transition.

Even though Paige Bueckers is still recovering from a concussion, and her potential absence or any limitations would hurt Dallas’s offensive cohesion, there are still enough shot creators and pace pushers on the Wings to keep the game flowing up and down.

Minnesota should also thrive offensively in this matchup. They rank third in offensive rating and have multiple scoring threats now fully healthy. The Wings have allowed 22 fast break points in one of those contests against the Lynx, and on the other side, the Lynx have surrendered 21 fast break points in a game against the Wings.

In a track meet or a grind, the Lynx have the tools to break 85–90 points themselves, and the Wings’ high pace may drag them along to a final total in the 170s.

Don’t let Minnesota’s slow pace in other games fool you, as Dallas has a way of speeding teams up, and both prior matchups finished with 183 and 166 total points, respectively. The Over has real value here, especially with how efficiently both teams operate from midrange and on the break.

Napheesa Collier to Record a Double Double (-105)

Collier has simply been dominant in this matchup. She scored a combined 62 points in the first two meetings against Dallas on 20-of-34 shooting from the floor and 20-of-20 from the free-throw line. Now, with more help on offense, she’s been able to shift some energy toward the glass, grabbing 10+ rebounds in four straight games after averaging just six over her first three.

Collier currently ranks seventh in the WNBA in free-throw attempts per game (6.1), and Dallas ranks last in free throws allowed. That’s a recipe for easy points, especially with her ability to finish through contact in the paint. And when you add in Dallas’s league-worst defensive rebounding percentage, there will be plenty of opportunity for Collier to clean up the glass on both ends.

With scoring and rebounding paths to hit this number, and her proven success in this specific matchup, we like a double double from the Lynx superstar.

Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings odds

Minnesota Lynx	-575 ML
Dallas Wings	+425 ML
Spread	MIN Lynx -11.0
Total Points	O/U 169.5

Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings player props

Player Points

Napheesa Collier (MIN Lynx)	O/U 23.5
Arike Ogunbowale (DAL Wings)	O/U 15.5
Kayla McBride (MIN Lynx)	O/U 14.5
Courtney Williams (MIN Lynx)	O/U 13.5
DiJonai Carrington (DAL Wings)	O/U 12.5
Alanna Smith (MIN Lynx)	O/U 9.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.