Tuesday night’s Commissioner’s Cup clash between the Las Vegas Aces and the Minnesota Lynx brings together two of the WNBA’s most decorated franchises, but only one is looking like a true title contender right now.
The Lynx, riding a dominant 10-1 record and unbeaten at home, have been one of the league’s most consistent forces this season. Meanwhile, the Aces, the two-time recent champs, are trying to regain their championship form but are battling injuries and inconsistency through the first quarter of the 2025 campaign.
Tip-off is set for 8 PM ET at Target Center in Minneapolis, where the Aces might be forced to play without superstar A’ja Wilson. The three-time MVP and cornerstone of the Las Vegas offense is a game-time decision, leaving a huge question mark for bettors.
The Aces have yet to find their usual offensive rhythm, and Wilson’s absence could expose them against a red-hot Lynx squad that’s blown out its last two home opponents by 23 or more points.
It’s hard to find many reasons to back the Aces in this matchup if Wilson sits, and even if she plays, she may not be 100%.
Las Vegas is a disappointing 5-5 overall and 2-3 on the road, struggling with poor shooting (under 40% from the field) and ranked just 8th in offensive efficiency. They’re also giving up more than 83 points per game and have struggled to protect the paint all season, a vulnerability that Minnesota’s star Napheesa Collier could exploit.
The Lynx are winning games convincingly. They’re second in the WNBA in offensive rating and fourth defensively, while ranking top two in effective field goal percentage. While they play at a slower pace (12th in the league) compared to Las Vegas’s fast tempo, they use that to their advantage by executing efficient half-court sets and limiting opponents’ second chances.
Neither squad attacks the offensive glass aggressively, so the Lynx’s ability to control the boards and get quality shots should tilt the game their way.
Las Vegas does get plenty of points from the perimeter and the free-throw line, but Minnesota defends without fouling (top four at limiting opponent free throws). With Cheyenne Parker-Tyus still sidelined and Wilson’s status shaky, the Aces will struggle to score inside and could find themselves settling for low-quality jumpers if the Lynx get out to an early lead.
Minnesota is 5-0 at home and has covered comfortably in their last two games there. If Wilson can’t go, this could be another double-digit Lynx win.
While Las Vegas’s fast pace and the Lynx’s 101-point outburst in their last home game might tempt the public to hammer the over, the matchup stats lean the other way. If the Aces are without Wilson, or if she plays limited minutes, their already inconsistent offense is likely to sputter even more.
Minnesota dictates tempo at one of the slowest paces in the league, preferring a methodical, half-court approach that chews up the shot clock and forces opponents into tough looks. That could frustrate a Las Vegas team that wants to get out in transition but lacks the finishing and shooting efficiency to score consistently in the half-court.
Neither team does much damage on the offensive glass, which means fewer second-chance buckets to inflate the total. If the Lynx build an early cushion, expect them to bleed the clock and force the Aces to score in half-court sets where they’ve struggled all season.
Head-to-head, these teams both rank in the bottom two for percentage of points scored in the paint, which further suggests a jump-shooting contest with minimal easy buckets at the rim. Fewer free throws, limited transition play and strong defensive rebounding should keep the final score under 161, especially if Las Vegas is forced to jack up low-percentage threes in catch-up mode.
One player prop that feels tailor-made for this spot is backing Napheesa Collier to notch a double-double at even money. With frontcourt mate Jessica Shepard out until at least early July, and the Aces possibly missing Wilson, Collier should have free rein to dominate the boards tonight.
The Lynx star has recorded five double-doubles already this season and is averaging a league-leading 26.1 points along with 8.8 rebounds per game. She’s narrowly missed a double-double in each of her last two games (8 and 9 rebounds, respectively), but against an Aces squad that struggles in the paint, the stage is set for Collier to fill the stat sheet.
Las Vegas is undersized without Wilson and Parker-Tyus, and they’re unlikely to keep Collier off the glass for a full four quarters. Her scoring is virtually guaranteed, as she’s cleared 30 points multiple times this season, so the only question is whether she’ll get enough boards. All signs point to yes, and at +100, this prop offers solid value for bettors tonight.
Las Vegas Aces | +600 ML |
Minnesota Lynx | -900 ML |
Spread | MIN Lynx -13.0 |
Total Points | O/U 161.0 |
Napheesa Collier (MIN Lynx) | O/U 23.5 |
Jackie Young (LV Aces) | O/U 20.5 |
Kayla McBride (MIN Lynx) | O/U 15.5 |
Chelsea Gray (LV Aces) | O/U 15.5 |
Jewell Loyd (LV Aces) | O/U 14.5 |
Courtney Williams (MIN Lynx) | O/U 10.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.